Active inventory has increased significantly in this segment of the real estate market in Mesa, Arizona. There are several contributing factors, among which is the economy. Those homeowners in this market may well be business owners who are feeling the uncertainty of prices for goods and services. A year ago for week 17, there were 69 active listings for homes priced from $1 to $3 million. That number has doubled.
For all price ranges in Mesa, this next chart puts inventory into a different perspective. The year 2007 was a point in time when inventory was increasing as we entered the housing recession. Are we nearing a housing recession, all indications reflect NO, we are not headed into a recession for housing, even though the economy is leaning that direction. So while inventory overall has increased, we are nowhere near the historical housing recession that sent a lot of us into PTSD. During 2007 there were several dynamics that don't exist today. Predatory lending, re-sale homes were higher priced than new construction turning a huge majority of homeowners into wannabe investors. Guard railes are in place since to prevent that dynamic, including the demise of negative amortized loans.
To understand supply in this price range, this historical chart dates back to 2011 when inventory rose dramatically as the Phoenix housting market ended the housing recession. The "Active Months Supply" of inventory was pretty much what it is now. We were spoiled in 2021 when inventory dropped so dramatically. Due to historical numbers, the current active listings on the market seems similar at 5.9 months supply. If no new listings came on the market in this price range, it would take 5.9 months to sell everything in that range.
Average Days on Market for Sales in the price range of $1 - $3 million in Mesa is holding steady. March, 2025 the number of days on market for a home selling in Mesa in the above price range was 98 days. With only 3 days left in the month, April is sitting at 68 days on market. A nice bump. Days on market during the frenzy show dramtic shifts as compared to now.
Sales have skyrocketed, but remember that prices have increased since the start of the pandemic. Sales for homes in the $1 - $3 million price range have increased by volume mostly due to price increases. But this chat clearly shows the volume of sales has risen dramatically during the last several years.
Annual appreciation by price range reflects some interesting dynamics. For homes priced between $1 and $3 million annual apprecation measures anywhere from 1.1% to $2.3% in year over year sales. But who knew that homes priced from $5 to $10,000 million went down in value? Or that homes priced over $10 million have the highest appreciation?
For these and other charts related to other cities and price ranges, please contact me. And please do not snip these report as they are provided courtesy of the Cromford Report by subscription only.
Till next time - see you around the Green block!
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