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Shadow Market About to Say "Boo" to Santa Fe Home Prices!

By Emily Medvec

Real Estate Broker/Owner with eXp Realty | Santa Fe NM Broker License 16161

September 16, 2025 10:09 AM

Today the Santa Fe Association of Realtors MLS shows about 2,027 active listings for homes, condos, and townhomes. Yet beneath the surface sits a “hidden” pool of properties—commonly called shadow inventory—that hasn’t yet hit the MLS. Imagine what could happen to home prices when it does come on the market.

Current data shows 82 properties in pre-foreclosure and 132 bank-owned homes not on the market. That’s 214 additional properties that could flow into active listings without warning.

I track these numbers daily so my clients can make decisions with clarity and confidence rather than reacting to headlines. That’s how we outthink uncertainty and turn it into an advantage for your next move or investment.

This matters because supply and demand set the tone for pricing. When new inventory enters a market already seeing more price drops, rising days on market, and a steady pace of new listings, pricing power can shift quickly. A sudden surge of shadow inventory could soften prices further, extend time on market for existing listings, and create new negotiation opportunities for buyers.

In a market like this, experience with real numbers—not guesswork—is critical. As a longtime Santa Fe broker with a background in economics and deep access to real-time MLS and off-market data, I help my clients stay ahead of these shifts. For sellers, that means pricing and positioning your home strategically from day one to stand out even as competition grows. For buyers, it means knowing where hidden opportunities may emerge before everyone else sees them.

If you’re curious about how this hidden supply could affect your neighborhood or your next move, now is the time to act. Shadow inventory doesn’t show up in online searches, but I track it by zip code and by street to give my clients an edge—whether that means accurately pricing a home before new competition arrives or spotting off-market opportunities before they hit the MLS.

Let’s talk about the numbers in your zip code or neighborhood and what they mean for you. I offer personalized home-value consultations for sellers and targeted representation for buyers who want to uncover hidden opportunities. My focus is always saving you valuable time and money.

📞 Call or text me at 505-587-7997 today
📧 Email: emilymedvec@exprealty.com
🌐 Book online at: emilymedvec.com/contact.php

Let’s put local data and my insider knowledge and experience to work for you in today’s shifting Santa Fe market. There is no fee or obligation for a consultation.

Thank you for reading. Emily Medvec

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Don Baker

Lane Realty - Eatonton, GA

Lake Sinclair Specialist

I highly doubt you will see more than 50 of those come to market. Ever pending notice doesn't make it to market.

Sep 16, 2025 11:35 AM

Emily Medvec

Hi Don, these are NOT on the market. Our lis pendis has skyrocketed since April 2025, the majority our FHA and little equity. As for the bank owned, the banks are not releasing them to the market at this time. They already have gone through our state foreclosure process and for some reason they are not being released. In my opinion, this shadow inventory will impact our market more substantially than you suggest.

Sep 16, 2025 01:15 PM

Adam Feinberg

Elegran - Manhattan, NY

NYC Condo, Co-op, and Townhouse Advisor

Do you know the underlying causes for the shadow inventory and has the reasons given you a sense of what is changing in your market? In NYC we have a better way to address the new construction inventory which was shadow and we can now monitor all of a buildings shadow inventory via a site called Marketproof. That said, we can only easily address that one aspect of shadow inventory.

Sep 16, 2025 02:30 PM

Emily Medvec

Santa Fe, NM

Emily Medvec

eXp Realty | Santa Fe - Santa Fe, NM

Broker | Realtor | Santa Fe & Northern NM

Alan, good question! New construction has typically been not put into our MLS. The larger builders, Pulte and Dr Horton would send out email blasts to Realtors, the smaller ones rarely do. So these numbers do not include the spec builder inventory. You would think our shadow inventory would be lower priced homes and only 1 or two of our affordable zip codes. However that is not the case. In my ressearch, the ones now bank owned were substantially priced above market. And now the banks are holding them, in my opinion, waiting for some change in Fannie and Freddie. The majority of the pre-foreclosure are occupied and in all price ranges.

Underlying causes relate to a ecoomic policies that support dependency on the state/federal government resources vs private industry and economic growth, followed by leadership without vision or mind-set to make a difference. Next, is private equity take over of resources and now our natural gas and electric utilities. Third, people can not afford to live here given lack of affordability and work. Bottom line, the state policies focus on dependency.

Sep 16, 2025 03:33 PM

Peter Mohylsky, www.at...

Sandestin, FL

Kathy Streib

Cypress, TX

Retired Home Stager/Redesign

HI Emily- it seems like years since we heard "shadow market" being used. You're right, you have to look at the data, and yes analyze why it is what it is. For that sellers and buyers need to work with an expert local agent like you.

Sep 16, 2025 07:37 PM

Adam Feinberg

Hi Kathy Streib We never stopped using shadow inventory in NYC due to the nature of new construction condo buildings. It's typical to only release a sampling of a new building. the rest is shadow inventory. That said, a number of years back a new company called Marketproof was created to help combat the lack of transparency in the new construction market. One of the agents at my firm even partnered with Marketproof to create stacking plans- which outline floor by floor what the details of how each apartment is set up (bed, bath, price and sq ft) on each floor

Sep 19, 2025 01:36 PM

Michael Jacobs

Pasadena, CA

Pasadena And Southern California 818.516.4393

Hello Emily - long before I became acquainted with real estate or its potential as a practitioner, I remember my mom mentioning a line from an old radio show she recalled when she was growing up.

A familiar line in that mystery program, "the shadow knows" seemed to offer clues. Far away from that remembrance, local insight often provides some details that the bigger "picture" often shares in different ways with everyday real estate.

The industry continues to be a combination of what happens on streets in the area, the neighborhoods, communities as it grows bigger as it stretches those boundaries. The mixture isn't a secret sauce - or is it?

Sorry for the long comment. . .

Sep 17, 2025 02:24 AM

Brian England

Ambrose Realty Management LLC - Gilbert, AZ

MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

I think that I have only been to Santa Fe once in my life, and I remember how much I enjoyed visiting the Catholic churches that are there!

Sep 17, 2025 06:29 AM

Will Hamm

Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO

"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Emily BOO, great information you are sharing in your blog once again with us here in the Rain. Thank You

Sep 17, 2025 08:39 AM

John Juarez

The Medford Real Estate Team - Fremont, CA

ePRO, SRES, GRI, PMN

The information that you uncover, which few bother to dig up, can set you apart from and above your competition and well serve your clients.

Sep 20, 2025 07:58 AM

Dennis Neal

Exp Realty of Southern California, Inc. - Big Bear Lake, CA

Your Home Sold in 21 Days or We Sell It For Free

Hello, Emily. This is a very insightful analysis. Looking beyond the MLS to track shadow inventory is the mark of a true market expert. It's a critical factor that many don't consider, but it can absolutely influence pricing. Your ability to track this data gives your clients a huge advantage.

Sep 22, 2025 12:09 PM

Emily Medvec

Santa Fe, NM

Emily Medvec

Dennis, thank you. Many here have asked why would they banks hold back. After some thought, in my opinion, either they are waiting for major changes in Fannie and Freddie and/or it keeps home prices higher an avoids headlines like "housing recession" --- or they knwo something we don't.

Sep 22, 2025 12:36 PM

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