Everybody's making predictions, and now here's your chance to do recession math
Those Up And Down Recession Predictions
🏦 U.S. Recession Probability 2025
Predictions on the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 are constantly changing. They not only reflect a divided view among major institutions and researchers, but the factors that help determine probability are continuously shifting.
📊 The Current Consensus
Right now, the consensus by big banks, academic models, and economic forecasters is that the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 ranges from 30 to 40%.
Some models and commentators cite higher numbers, but the hard data, influenced by job growth and moderate GDP projections, suggests continued slow growth, not a sharp decline:
J.P. Morgan recently lowered its probability estimate for a U.S. recession in 2025 from 60% and now pegs the chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2025 at about 40% (J.P. Morgan)
UBS, a global bank, puts the odds at over 90% based on trends from May to July
September’s Consumer Confidence Report dropped to its lowest since April, and the share of Americans expecting a recession in the next year is at its highest since May (Conference Board, PBS)
S&P Global Ratings currently sees about a 30% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, citing persistent below-trend growth and policy uncertainty (S&P Global)
UCLA Anderson’s Recession Watch notes there are “no signs of an imminent recession” as of early 2025, with steady job growth and a stable unemployment rate (UCLA Anderson Forecast)
Market-based prediction platforms and Wall Street economist surveys generally cluster around a 30–40% probability, with some sources—like UBS—reporting occasional spikes in recession risk sentiment up to the 90% range, though these are outliers and usually tied to specific negative economic data releases (Polymarket; Newsweek)
Academic sectoral analyses (using indicators like the Sahm Rule and yield curve inversions) point to a recession probability ranging from 44–53% (SSRN)
🎯 Are They Throwing Darts At Balloons, Or Is There A Method To This Process?
There's definitely a process, but it rarely involves consensus among those doing the calculating.
The probability of a U.S. recession is a forecast based on a number of different models, data inputs, and expert judgment.
And then life happens.
📚 Learn More
In my latest Substack post on dcrealestate.channel, you'll learn how the major institutions and economists typically arrive at their recession probability estimates, connect with the main tools and indicators they use, and follow the steps to making your very own recession prediction!
Have fun!
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