It’s the Tenth day of the government shut down, no data, bond markets flat and October Rate cut, are you still there? Are we still going to have a meeting?
Some perhaps good news? The Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling back some furloughed workers to put together CPI numbers for the end of the month!
Given the lack in market data, we were combing through every piece of information and trying to spin it into rate cut rumors. It’s like having the National Enquirer as our source of news!
Yesterday we got the Fed minutes from the last meeting, showing a divided Fed. What will the lack of Data due to sway voting members? If inflation persists, will it impact the vote.
Today Christopher Waller was interviewed on CNBC and said the job market is weakening and is perhaps negative. GDP is up. You can’t have positive GPD growth and declining labor market. One will need to adjust. Either GDP comes down, or jobs improve. He said that 2 more cuts at a slower pace seems realistic.
It is my opinion that declining labor force will have a slowing effect on inflation. If workers are laid off and don’t have a paycheck, they will adjust their spending habits. Less goods being sold will organically bring prices down as consumers are looking for value. This will offset some inflation in the short term.
Long weekend, no data, and Flat market movement. If you are looking to purchase, I suggest now is the time. If you are looking to refinance, if it makes sense take advantage of some savings.
Comments(1)