As we enter November here are very important movers and impacts to Mortgage rates. Please check out this 2 part series. I am saving the scariest for last. By the way NO-ONE is talking about.
Government shut down.
We are 1 month plus into the shut down. People have lost food benefits. Flying is an issue, especially as we approach the busiest travel time of the year. The departments that issue vital statistics for economic policy to be made are closed. We saw first hand the damage that not having Data means to the rate market. Yes, we got a .25 point cut at the last Fed Meeting. Then in the Press conference, it all went to Hell. The comment that hurt the market the most was "The December Rate cut was not a foregone conclusion" the nail in the coffin " FAR FROM IT" Rates went up on those 3 words. No BLS jobs report Friday nothing to temper the fear of a worsening or stable job market. We should have 2 reports before the December meeting.
But what if the Government Reopens? Shouldn't that mean good news for the market. It will long term. Short term all of theses department putting together their data on inflation and jobs will take some time. Remember the market looks at the reporting Data points then the revisions. Sometimes the revisions have a greater impact on the market. W may not have any revisions until February 2026. When they do reopen TOO MUCH INFOMATION, TOO SOON. Markets don't like a data dump.
Changing of the Guard at the FED
Chairman Powell's term is up in May. We know the administration wants a Fed they can control. So look for the Nominee to be accommodating. That has both good and bad short and long term issues. I will do a blog on this as we get closer.
The United States credit rating down grade
Remember the last time this happened. The Credit rating agencies downgraded US Debt because our government could work together. That meant higher borrowing costs and rates went up. That is something to be concerned about the longer this lasts.
If you are looking at buying now is the time. We may need until Spring to get back to where we should be without a Government Shut down
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