The last month of 2025 ended with more sales in the Phoenix Metro area than December, 2022. Total sales were 69,304, very close to the same number of sales for 2015, except for trailing foreclosures and HUD sales that year. Declining inventory for December, put the squeeze on buyers to make decisions. Higher price ranges definitely contributed to more sales in total for 2025. Our appreciate was slow and steady with no real volatility. Home sellers needed their homes to be priced right, move-in ready and/or have great remodels to sell faster.
For the last four years, affordable homes have declined rapidly as prices rose during the frenzied home market. Real estate prices soared with low interest rates and spreadsheets for listings were required ! Homes are still selling though!
It's easy to see that affordable homes are disappearing during the last 5 years.
Part of the housing changes indicate higher price ranges contributing to more sales, which is probably occurring across the country as stockmarket balances grow. There were 32 sales over $10 million with the highest sale at $30 million in the Phoenix metro area. Homes priced under $700,000 dropped in price, mostly due to over-priced listing. Homes will sit on the market longer and more price reductions become evident.
This chart reflects total number of price ranges from 2023 to 2025. Clearly 2025 was the reigning King of over-priced listings. Each low point on the chart represents the month of December when homes are either taken off the market, or price reductions drop. It does appear that 2026 might be off to a better start.
This chart reflects increases in price per square foot by price range. Homes under $700,000 declined in average price per square foot during their sales period. The median home price in Metro Phoenix is $480,000; the median sales price in Scottsdale is currently $914,500.
Currently, every city in Maricopa County has improved toward being (if not already in) a sellers market, except for Paradise Valley, our luxury city, that dropped five points; and Avondale which was flat. In general, this is a very strong indicator for the area as a whole starting hte new year. Our seasonal market typically starts slower in January, but new listings are hitting the market and demand is strong with the promise of buyers coming off the fence in hopes that news stories of dropping rates materializes.
Sellers markets are indicated when the Cromford Market Index is over 110. Balanced markets range from 110 - 90. Buyers markets are shown under 90. The cities in the buyer's market range are located on the outskirts of Maricopa County and northern Pinal County. This market indicator helps agents navigate offers and listings. The definition of the Cromford Market Index is not simply past sales as we find on the MLS:
"Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market."
Prices have risen consistently for the Phoenix Metro area until interest rates increased over historically low rates in April, 2022. The highest sales price of $358 per square foot occurred 12/31/24. It's worth noting that price for square foot of any home under contract is generally not available except by subscription to the Cromford Report.
To understand the big picture for housing inventory in the Phoenix metro area, this chart shows inventory levels for Active listings. The last time there were 24,000 listings was in 2014; however, our population was lighter by 500,000 people. The Phoenix area consistently makes the list of top 10 cities in the country for population growth of incoming residents with many companies relocating here.
This indicator shows Annual Appreciation since 2000! As you can see, 2025 reflected positive appreciation - just barely. Economists are saying we'll have up to 5% appreciation in 2026 partly fueled by interest rate reductions and continued economic growth in Maricopa County. The highest peak of appreciation occurred in August, 2005 at 45.8%; coming in second during May, 2021 at 38.8%. We've seen some wild rises in Phoenix. But doesn't that go along with the cities meaning?! Our market has had some extreme ups and downs. The most negative appreciation occurred in February, 2009, when our real estate market dropped 40.5% in one year! At that time, ranked either 1st or 2nd in overall drop in appreciation nationally!
If you'd like more information about a specific zip code or price range, please contact me.
Please do not copy these charts as they are provided by subscription to the Cromford Report. Contact them directly by Google if you'd like to subscribe. As a multi-year subscriptionist - I'm fascinated by stats as they tell the real story!
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