First things first: even after the past five days of movement, today’s mortgage rates are still the lowest we’ve seen since early 2023.
That said, rates did move up slightly over the last several days — after dropping to even lower levels late last week. In the big picture, these changes are modest, but the distinction matters, especially when looking at widely reported rate data.
Why Some Headlines Can Be Misleading
Much of the public reporting on mortgage rates comes from Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which is released every Thursday. Because of that timing:
The survey did not capture last Friday’s sharp drop in rates
It also does not reflect the modest increases we’ve seen so far this week
In other words, the weekly data can lag what’s actually happening in the market day to day.
What Caused Last Week’s Drop?
The big move lower in rates last week followed an announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (often referred to as “the GSEs”) would purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Mortgage-backed securities are the bonds that directly influence mortgage rates. While these purchases don’t control the entire bond market, they can help mortgage rates perform better than other benchmarks, especially during volatile periods.
Watching the 10-Year Treasury
Mortgage rates are often compared to the 10-year Treasury yield, which recently broke out of a narrow trading range and moved higher. That upward move creates pressure on rates, making the GSE support especially helpful right now.
Like many mortgage professionals, I probably watch the 10-year Treasury a little too closely. It closed Friday at 4.227%, and I’ll admit — I still dream of the day it drops below **4% and stays there for a while.
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