It’s completely understandable to feel some frustration right now. After the progress we saw in February, the market has certainly thrown a curveball. The short answer is: it’s making the timing more challenging, but it hasn’t closed the door entirely.
As of today, April 13, 2026, here is how those two factors are specifically impacting your refinance math:
- The "Inflation Tax" on Rates
Inflation is the natural enemy of mortgage bonds. When the conflict in Iran pushed oil prices toward $110 a barrel, it acted like a "tax" on everything from gas to groceries.
- The Impact: Because the market expects this to keep inflation "sticky," investors are demanding higher yields. This is why we’ve seen rates hover in the mid-6% range recently, rather than dropping back into the 5s.
- The Geopolitical "Tug-of-War"
Usually, war causes a "Flight to Quality" (investors buying bonds for safety), which helps rates. However, because this conflict involves a major oil chokepoint, the inflation fear is currently stronger than the safety move.
- The Result: Rates are moving based on daily headlines. One day a "peace talk" rumor drops rates 10 basis points; the next day, a supply disruption pushes them back up.
Are your chances "hurt"?
It depends on your current "baseline":
- If your current rate is 7.5% or higher: You are still in a great position. Even at 6.5%, you could save hundreds of dollars a month. The "war spike" hasn't taken away your savings; it’s just slowed the descent.
- If you are waiting for 5.75%: That window is currently "on hold" until the energy market stabilizes.
The Strategic "Silver Lining"
With 30 years in this business, I’ve seen that these "shocks" eventually settle. When they do, we often see a "rubber band effect" where rates drop quickly to catch up with the cooling economy.
My Advice: Don't let the headlines stop you from being "Lock-Ready." If we have your updated 2025 W-2s and recent paystubs on file, we can strike the moment a 24-hour "dip" occurs. Many of the best refinance opportunities in history happened during volatile weeks just like this one.
Would you like me to run a quick comparison of your current payment versus today’s available rate to see if the monthly savings still outweigh the wait?
I am licensed in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Florida NMLS#12398
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