Every time I sit down with someone thinking about buying in Boca Raton, especially a family relocating from out of state, the same two objections come up. What about hurricanes? And what about the insurance bill?
For the last few years those were fair questions. Storms were active, carriers were pulling out of Florida, and premiums were climbing fast enough to break a budget. That fear got priced into the market.
Here is what almost nobody is talking about. In 2026, both of those fears are easing at the same time.
Fear one: hurricane risk. The 2026 forecast is below normal.
NOAA is calling for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, with a 55 percent chance of below-normal activity. Colorado State University projects 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. An average Atlantic season produces about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The reason is a developing El Nino, which drives stronger wind shear across the Atlantic and tears storms apart before they organize.
The honest caveat: a seasonal outlook is not a landfall forecast. A quiet season can still produce one bad storm. Nobody should buy in Florida assuming the weather is solved.
Fear two: insurance. Rates are actually going down.
Citizens Property Insurance is delivering a statewide average premium reduction of 8.7 percent. More than 330,000 policyholders across all 67 Florida counties are seeing decreases, and over 150,000 are getting reductions of 10 percent or more.
Private carriers are filing decreases too. Florida Peninsula at negative 8.2 percent. Security First at negative 8 percent. Universal Property and Casualty at negative 5.1 percent. When private carriers cut rates, they want to write business in Florida again.
Why? Litigation dropped sharply after Florida eliminated one-way attorney fees and cracked down on abusive assignment-of-benefits practices. Losses came in below projections. Reinsurance costs fell. That is a market repairing itself.
What this means for buyers and sellers
Insurance is part of your carrying cost. When the premium drops, your effective monthly payment drops with it, even if the price and the mortgage rate never move. If you passed on a home over an insurance quote last year, that quote may no longer be accurate.
If you are listing in Boca Raton, the insurance objection is no longer the deal-killer it was two years ago. Pull your current premium. If it went down, that belongs in your marketing. Same with your roof, windows, and wind mitigation report, which now translate directly into a lower quote for your buyer and a stronger offer for you.
Fear creates discounts. When the fear fades, the discount fades with it.
Full breakdown here: https://ryanjabbour.com/south-florida-hurricane-forecast-insurance-relief-2026/
Ryan Jabbour, The Jabbour Group, Boca Raton and South Florida.
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