📊🏠 SEPTEMBER 2026 MORTGAGE & ECONOMIC UPDATE
So…what the heck is going on with the economy, inflation, jobs, and mortgage rates? 🤔
August gave us a mixed bag of economic data—and there are some VERY important takeaways for anyone thinking about buying, selling, refinancing, or investing in real estate.
Here's the #JUSTCALLWILLIAM breakdown:
📈 INTEREST RATES
The 10-year Treasury ended August at 4.75%, essentially unchanged from July.
Meanwhile…
🏠 30-year mortgage: 6.66%
🏠 15-year mortgage: 5.98%
📈 30-year Treasury: 5.25%
Translation?
Mortgage rates aren't getting the dramatic relief many buyers have been waiting for.
And inflation remains one of the biggest obstacles standing in the way of significantly lower rates.
🏠 HOUSING MARKET
July housing numbers were not exactly pretty.
Existing home sales: -1.7%
Pending sales: -2.3%
New home sales: -10.5%
But here's the part that continues to surprise people:
Home prices are still rising.
📈 Existing single-family median price: $440,300 — up 1.9% YoY
📈 Existing condo median price: $371,800 — up 2.2% YoY
📈 Case-Shiller 20-city index: +2.1% YoY
So we're seeing something that has become very familiar:
Lower transaction volume…without a major decline in home values.
Why?
Supply.
There are more homes available than we've seen in recent years, but inventory still isn't overwhelming enough in many markets to create a major nationwide price collapse.
👷 THE JOB MARKET
This is where things get interesting.
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July.
The unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%, but part of that decline was tied to a shrinking labor force.
Average hourly earnings were up 3.2% year over year.
Job creation has also been revised lower.
That gives the Fed something to watch very closely:
Is the labor market weakening enough to justify easier monetary policy?
🔥 INFLATION IS STILL THE PROBLEM
Here's the number that mortgage professionals need to keep watching:
PCE inflation: +3.7% YoY
Core PCE: +3.3% YoY
CPI: +3.4% YoY
And everyday expenses aren't exactly feeling like they're going down.
🏠 Shelter: +3.2%
🍔 Food: +3.0%
⛽ Energy: +14.7%
⛽ Gasoline: +24.6%
The Fed wants inflation at 2%.
We're still above that target.
And that makes the path to substantially lower mortgage rates much more complicated.
🇺🇸 THE ECONOMY
GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, with consumer spending, business investment and exports contributing to growth.
So the economy isn't collapsing.
But it's also not exactly firing on all cylinders.
And that's the balancing act the Federal Reserve is facing:
Inflation is still too high.
The labor market is showing signs of cooling.
Economic growth is slowing.
Consumers are becoming less confident.
That's a VERY complicated recipe for monetary policy.
📉 CONSUMERS ARE FEELING IT
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, although they're still up 5.0% YoY.
Consumer Confidence fell to 89.4.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropped to 51.7.
People are still spending…
…but confidence is weakening.
🛢️ AND THEN THERE'S OIL…
WTI crude ended August around $87/barrel, compared with $70 at the end of June.
Brent was around $91/barrel.
Higher energy prices can put additional pressure on inflation.
And if inflation stays elevated, the Fed has less room to aggressively cut rates.
🏠 SO WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN FOR REAL ESTATE?
Here's my biggest takeaway:
Don't build your real estate strategy around predicting the perfect interest rate.
If you're waiting for rates to fall substantially, ask yourself:
👉 What happens if rates don't fall as quickly as you expect?
👉 What happens if home prices continue rising?
👉 What happens if more buyers jump into the market when rates finally fall?
👉 Could competition increase?
👉 Would refinancing later be an option if rates improve?
The smartest buyers aren't necessarily the ones who perfectly time the market.
They're the ones who understand their numbers, options and long-term strategy.
And sellers need to understand the other side of the equation too.
📊 The market isn't simply “good” or “bad.”
It's changing.
And the people who understand what's actually happening will be in a much better position to make smart decisions.
Don't let headlines make your financial decisions for you.
Let's look at YOUR numbers.
📲 #JUSTCALLWILLIAM
630-881-8655
🏠 Mortgage Banker | Real Estate Strategist
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