Will Florida continue to grow? or have thinigs really changed?

Florida’s growth rate has been phenomenal for decades and projections for continued growth have not yet been revised sharply downward. In recent years the rate of growth may have slowed but experts whose job it is to monitor population trends say that the net population of Florida is still on the increase. For information on Florida’s growth trend see “IS FLORIDA SHRINKING?”. As I’ve watched real estate prices fall and inventories rise I began to wonder if the projections for growth in Florida had changed. As a resident who loves the Florida lifestyle I can’t comprehend how someone would not wish to live in the “Sunshine State”. I’ve listened to so many people argue the demographic shift of an aging America would guarantee continued growth.

I believe that the current slower rate of growth will eventually tick back to a faster rate as Americans retire. Many, who have worked their entire life with the dream of retiring to a place where almost everyday the sun shines, will realize that they can’t put off the move forever without giving up on their dream. In the mean time this pause in rapid growth and sudden rise in energy prices may be just what Florida needs. For years Floridians have struggled dealing with all the negatives that comes with developing along the coast and wetlands. Growth has growth ideals have been elected to local governments. Higher energy prices may have the effect of making urban living a desirable alternative to living miles away from the urban service area, ending pressures to build in currently undeveloped areas.

In the 1920’s John Nolan developed a blue print for urban development. Nolan’s design concepts were used in St. Petersburg and Venice. I live in Venice and have come to appreciate Nolan’s design concepts. See my blog entry “Will people shop for ‘green’ communities”. Since the 1990’s towns like Seaside and Celebration have been developed that are models of New Urban design. Florida’s growth management philosophy in the second half of the 19^th century has been to balance development of urban areas while preserving the natural. To that end the State of Florida has purchased more than 5 million acres for preservation. Limiting the footprint of development will have the desired effect of preserving the natural Florida that has caused so many to refer to Florida as paradise. The undesired effect will be the escalation of land values in the urban areas. Unless the estimates of population growth are drastically revised we will see 8 million people move to the Sunshine Sate over the next 20 years!

I can’t begin to predict when the growth rate will ramp up again, but even with high energy costs Florida tourism is still brisk. Many experts are chalking it up to “stay-cationing” and foreigners taking cheap vacations. I think there is an additional component. People at or nearing retirement are visiting to find the area that most appeals to them for retirement. Recent residential property sales from Sarasota to Cape Coral seem to show that many are finding southwest Florida stills fits the bill of “Paradise Found”.