Have We Hit the Bottom?

By
Real Estate Agent with BHGRE - Metro Brokers

Most of us know by now that the real estate market has experienced a pullback across the country which I believe is largely due to consumer confidence.  The confidence level is at a low point and so we tend to tighten the belt and cut back spending.   Inflation in the United States is up 4.2% as measured by the consumer price index ending May 31, 2008.  America has experienced annual inflation greater than 4.2% only four times in the past 25 years.  Large purchases are put on hold and we make do with our existing cars and homes.  More recently, the oil prices are having quite an impact on our lives, especially on the cost of food and goods which are a direct hit to our bottom line. 

The latest buzz in my market area of North Georgia from some local appraisors is the market has stabilized which begs the question, have we hit the bottom?  If I knew the answer to that one, I would probably be living next door to Bill Gates.  Over time, there are many cycles in the real estate market as with our economy and trying to time the bottom is nearly impossible.  While I cannot say that we've reached the bottom or the worst is over or even yet to come, I can say that I am not sitting on the sidelines idly watching. 

I strive to proactively monitor the market conditions in the North Georgia Blue Ridge Mountains and report the facts as accurately as possible, good or bad.  Let's remember that we have come back from worse times.  See market conditions for June for Fannin, Gilmer, Union and Towns Counties:  North Georgia Blue Ridge Mountains Market Data (June)

So... Do you Buy Now !   When is the best time?  The answer to these questions are based on many variables personal and unique to the individual buyer and should be carefully thought out.  When analyzing your personal situation, wants and needs, and trying to decide whether to Buy Now, consider:

  • the selection of properties for sale has never been better - everything is technically "on sale"
  • prices are lower than they have been in years, and interest rates continue to remain low
  • talking with a trusted Realtor who knows the desired market area
  • Also, it's prudent to keep in mind that real estate should be viewed as a long term investment (typically 5 years or more)

I would like to encourage you to visit my website:  www.move2northgeorgia.net as I will continue to monitor the real estate market and post the market data for your viewing, as well as in my blogs on Active Rain.  I hope this will help you keep up with the real estate market in the North Georgia Mountains.

I know it's not enough to tell clients the real estate market is simply going through a normal business cycle. As a proactive Realtor working in real estate full time, I actively look for ways to give my clients the best results possible whether buying or selling.  I understand that your future and the futures of your families are of the utmost importance. 

 

 

Donna Yates, Georgia Realtor
Mountain Investments of North Georgia
Ofc:  706-946-7111   Cell:  706-633-0644 (direct)
Primarily serving the North Georgia Blue Ridge Mountains
Fannin, Gilmer, Union and Towns Counties


Websites: 
www.mynorthgeorgia.net  
www.move2northgeorgia.net 
www.greatgeorgiahomes.net

Email: 
donna@mynorthgeorgia.net 

Edited:  August 3, 2008

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Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

Konnie:  I hope buyers haven't waited too long - higher prices and who knows, higher interest rates at some point too.

Charlie:  Thank you very much.  I'm glad you liked the post and we'll see what the other half of the year brings.  Time will tell.

Jul 19, 2008 09:34 AM #3
Ambassador
295,725
David M. Childress
Howard Hanna Real Estate Services - Akron, OH
I would love to be your Realtor® in Akron Ohio!

The last few months have been pretty good here in Akron, Ohio. Buyers are out and DOM have improved. The Dow is up and gas is down, if only that would continue we could all be busy again!

Jul 19, 2008 09:35 AM #4
Rainer
27,838
Gregg Fous
Market America Realty and Investments, Inc. - Fort Myers, FL

Some of the same agents that are sayng we are at the bottom are the same agents that were screaming buy! buy! buy! three years ago.

Whether we are at the bottom or not depends on your perspective. If you are an owner that bought duing the boom boom price increased, you bottome is a long fall.

I had dinner the other night with about a dozen real estate investors, builders, speculators, and otherwise smart men. We try to get together every few months to network, compare strategies, and have a few laughs.  Most of us were not laughing last week.  Business, in a word, is terrible.  Most of us were licking our wounds and hunkering down for a protracted recovery period. 

We are, after all, in the recovery period of a real estate cycle. Right? How sharp or gradual the recovery will be, and how long it will take, and what exactly recovery IS, was a big topic of discussion.

 I am not an economist and some folks think I am not even a realist, but most of my friends acknowledge that I am indeed, an optimist.  That being said, I will tell you that I am confident that we are in a recovery mode of a real estate cycle. Make no mistake, it IS a cycle, and yes I believe we are in the recovery period. 

Good post.

Jul 19, 2008 09:40 AM #5
Rainmaker
449,836
Vickie McCartney
Maverick Realty - Owensboro, KY
Broker, Real Estate Agent Owensboro KY

Donna~  The market and the economy is what is is, we just have to be creative and find ways to deal with it the best we can. The best approach is to be positive and keep moving forward!

Jul 19, 2008 09:41 AM #6
Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

David:  That really is good news and gas prices are down - wow!

Gregg:  I know it's been a tough go for all of you but it sounds like you have the right attitude.  Florida is a beautiful state and I've said all along, there is no way Florida's market will stay down with all the fantastic real estate in your state.

Vickie:  Keep moving forward, that's key isn't it!  Thank you.

Jul 19, 2008 09:52 AM #7
Rainer
8,454
Steve Shull
Performance Coaching - West Los Angeles, CA

My name is Steve Shull. I am a principal in a high end real estate company in Beverly Hills, Ca. www.telesproperties.com.  Our company issues a monthly report on the local market as the media just seems to tell one side of the story. We are finding the actual numbers are much more balanced than what the headlines keep indicating. You can check our local statistics at www.telesproperties.com/link/micromarket.

Jul 19, 2008 10:01 AM #8
Rainer
334,430
Tom Davis
Harrington ERA,DE Homes For Sale, $$ Save $$ Buy Today ! - Dover, DE
FREE Delaware Homes Search!, $$ Save $$ - Find Homes! Delaware Realtor

Donna - I am looking forward to the "Moving UP"  if this is the bottom now...hmm well I am surviving!

Thanks,

Tom Davis

World Class DE Realtor

Jul 19, 2008 10:02 AM #9
Rainmaker
75,730
Shannon Ziccardi
A+ Mobile Notary / "A Quick Note" - Lake Forest, CA
A+ Mobile Notary/"A Quick Note"

Donna,

     I have a theory that says: As soon as the Presidential election is over and done with, [regardless of who wins] our overall economic and housing market will "magically" be great all of a sudden...The last time this theory worked in practice was 2000. 

     The doom and gloom crowd love to paint an ugly picture just in case their candidate wins...then he can look like a hero for bringing us hope...if he doesn't win, they don't have to change their thinking at all and are prepared to say "see I told you so".

     So many economic indicators are truly positive that a hero will definitely be born on innauguration day...and then we can all get back to business!

Jul 19, 2008 10:11 AM #10
Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

Steve: I agree, the media does seem to be one sided and it's always on the gloom and doom side.

Tom:  Only the strong (and smart ones) survive.

Shannon:  I think what you say has a lot of truth to it but it's for sure that we have a definite energy crisis in our country which is affecting everything so Congress needs to earn the taxpayer's money and get something done regardless of the presidential election.  This problem is not going away if Congress doesn't get it together.

Jul 19, 2008 11:18 AM #11
Anonymous
Anonymous

The Media is liberal.  It will color the current state of the economy as terrible to get their party elected. Expect the press  to change their tune after the election.

Jul 20, 2008 02:56 AM #12
Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

Thank you for your comment.

Jul 20, 2008 03:54 AM #13
Rainer
33,067
GA-agent.com Georgia Real Estate Directory
GA-agent.com - Canton, GA

Perception vs. Reality?

It would seem the some of the numbers coming out across the country indicate that the market is stabilizing. We are not seeing crazy numbers, but people are buying and agents are selling!

Think positive...thoughts have wings...

Georgia Real Estate Directory

Jul 20, 2008 07:18 AM #14
Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

Hi James:  May those positive thoughts soar like Eagles!

Jul 20, 2008 10:18 AM #15
Rainmaker
590,448
Chuck Willman UtahHomes.me
Utah Homes - Alpine, UT
Utah Homes

I find the "bottom of the market" to be one of those measurements that is over-rated. For one is it the bottom with reqard to price or with regard to sales? The other aspect is the margin... most savvy investors are less interested in the absolute bottom as they are in being within 10% of the bottom. By looking for that larger area they're able to allow for due diligence and other planning events. The reality of the market is that being close enough to the bottom is better than missing it... this because the upswing is faster than the decline. Besides, some areas have already bottomed and others have a way to go... this is very much a local phenomena.

Jul 22, 2008 07:54 AM #16
Rainer
8,454
Steve Shull
Performance Coaching - West Los Angeles, CA

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize winning physicist

 

Great comments Chuck. No one can predict the future. I saw this first hand when I worked on the government trading desk at Solomon Brothers on Wall Street. The best and the brightest minds will never be able to time tops and bottoms as much as would like to think they can. I also agree with you, that buying close to the bottom on the way down is an opportunity. Sellers are still motivated. Usually there is more inventory to choose from and less competition. Once the market bottoms, all of these variables begin to reverse.

 

All that being said...

 

There are always people who have to buy or sell no matter what the market is doing and agents will be best served working with those people who need to do something right now vs. someday in the future or those waiting for a "different" market. When you keep your focus on "now" business, you will be productive. When you are working on future business, you will be easily distracted.

 

Steve

Jul 22, 2008 10:05 AM #17
Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

Chuck:  I absolutely agree with you.  I even told buyers six months ago, being close to the bottom is better than missing it but many of them still felt like they should hold out.  Great comment.  Thankyou.

Steve:  Absolutely true.  In the past six months, I've had to adjust my business strategy and set better ground rules to help insure that I am working with serious buyers who are ready to buy now instead of tirekickers and those trying to time the bottom.  Focus on "now" business has proven to be very productive.  Thank you for such a thorough comment.  I appreciate the great points you've made.

      If it could only work this way !   LOL

Jul 22, 2008 01:18 PM #18
Rainmaker
590,448
Chuck Willman UtahHomes.me
Utah Homes - Alpine, UT
Utah Homes

I'm starting to see more articles stating that we've possibly hit the bottom. When the press is saying this it all gets very interesting.

Jul 27, 2008 09:56 AM #19
Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

Chuck:  What goes up must come down so does that also apply when what goes down must go up!  It's bound to turn around and hopefully, market stabilization means it's turning around.  Time will tell.

Jul 28, 2008 04:48 AM #20
Rainer
208,346
James Wexler
wexzilla.com - Scottsdale, AZ

Unfortunately we will not hit bottom here in greater Phoenix and will not until we remove the glut of foreclosures.

By the way, do you have an outside blog other than AR?

Jul 28, 2008 05:03 AM #21
Rainmaker
371,324
Donna Yates
BHGRE - Metro Brokers - Blue Ridge, GA
Blue Ridge Mountains

James:  That is unfortunate and I hope your situation improves sooner rather than later.   I have used Wordpress in the past but haven't kept it up - just not enough time. 

Jul 28, 2008 05:35 AM #22
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