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Foreclosures up 121%, but ECONOMIC REVISIONS suggest ecopnomic stabilization....Go Figure!!!!!!!

By
Mortgage and Lending with Cherry Creek Mortgage Illinois Residential Mortgage License LMB #0005759 Cherry Creek Mortgage NMLS #: 3001 NMLS ID# 158606

U.S. new home sales fell marginally in June but the pace was much higher than expected due to +50k of revisions over the past three months. Economists were surprised by the report and said it may be a tentative sign of stabilization.

Some Cheif Strategists suggest that it "paints a brighter picture (than previously portrayed).  We'll see.....I can't believe that this is more than just a blip.  We'll see....time will tell....the proof will be in following economic data results.

Sales fell 0.6% to an annual pace of 530k sales in June's U.S. Census Bureau report on Friday. April's new home sales were revised up to 542k from a previously reported 525k, while May's 2.5% decline to 512k was revised to a 1.7% decline to 533k.  Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, called the reduction of inventories to a 10-month supply "encouraging," but noted that level "remains well above normal and will continue to put downward pressure on prices for some time yet."

One encouraging sign was that the median sale price of new houses sold in June was $230,900, up from May's revised median of $227,700.  I don't know what to think....I just hear that the foreclosures are up 121%, but then we hear all of this other stuff.  So which data is it?  Foreclosures up or economic revisions are suggestion a stabilized economy.  Which one?

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Comments(9)

Ann-Marie Clements
Candidate for an Ed.D. in Educational Leadership - Saint John, NB
Ed.D. candidate, Innovative Proactive Principa

You have to wonder, WHY they are releasing this information right about now (close to another presidential election) and WHO is telling them to release this info.  In today's world you have to think of the REASON behind the release of the data and the TIMING...

                ;>)

Jul 25, 2008 03:26 PM
David Spencer
Keller Williams Northland - Kansas City, MO
Show Me real estate in Kansas City

My foreclosure activity is up 40% over the past 30 days. Pictue is clouded.

Jul 25, 2008 03:27 PM
Larry Bettag
Cherry Creek Mortgage Illinois Residential Mortgage License LMB #0005759 Cherry Creek Mortgage NMLS #: 3001 - Saint Charles, IL
Vice-President of National Production

Ann-Marie....wow....a great perspective.....love the cartoon

David...unfortunately, you're right.

Jul 25, 2008 04:11 PM
Jim Dunlap
Roberts Realty - Yucca Valley, CA

Statistics can be calculated, forecast, and scewed in many ways.  Since economics is a social science, we're bound to have opposing opinions about the same economic issues.  Although this is not a great year for me real estate wise, my real estate income is double what it was last year, and I don't work too much with REO properties.  But you're right--time will tell.

Jul 25, 2008 05:13 PM
Larry Bettag
Cherry Creek Mortgage Illinois Residential Mortgage License LMB #0005759 Cherry Creek Mortgage NMLS #: 3001 - Saint Charles, IL
Vice-President of National Production

Jim...isn't that funny...not a great year, yet income is up.  I am having the same experience.

Jul 26, 2008 02:15 AM
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA

Hi Larry,  I always think its funny when numbers come in better than expected but still are horrible...whether they are earnings reports, writedowns, national economic numbers, etc. 

It's like saying, "We got our Asses kicked less than we were predicting!"  Everything functions on "sentiment" until the brutal facts become too obvious to ignore.

They've been buying a ton of portable fans to point at the printing presses that are kicking out greenbacks.  I'm very concerned for the long term viability of our economy.

Jul 26, 2008 04:23 AM
Christina Ewing
Perl Mortgage - Chicago, IL

Given the situation, the Fed has been making outstanding moves (in my opinion). Just a positive spin.

Jul 28, 2008 11:28 AM
Larry Bettag
Cherry Creek Mortgage Illinois Residential Mortgage License LMB #0005759 Cherry Creek Mortgage NMLS #: 3001 - Saint Charles, IL
Vice-President of National Production

Rich....I love your phrase...we got our asses kicked less than we thought. 

Christina . . . Let's see where it all shakes out.  Doing something is better than doing nothing.  At least it is a move forward....we'll see....we'll see.  we'll see.

Jul 30, 2008 03:12 PM
Ricardo Cobos
SunTrust Mortgage - Raleigh, NC

Remember; economica data is a BACKWARDS look at a period of time in the PAST. In the same affect; foreclsoures are a resulting action of a period of time in the PAST. Except in the movies, kno one is arrested for "pre-crime" and no one gets there house foreclosed for payments they havent yet failed to make.

In the same way that an appraised report uses data from prior sales. This is why lenders are asing for more current sales because they know that a comparable sale from 12 months ago doesnt represent the market today!

All that to say that it really IS possible to have poor data but a positive outlook. For Example; we know OIL supply hasn't increased at all, but since President Bush recinded the Offsore drilling ban, oil has decreased in price by more than 15%, just TALKING about drilling more. Like it or not, we live in a oil-based economy! Oil has been the biggest drag on this economy, with the price coming down, it will affect every aspec tof economy.

Jul 31, 2008 11:40 PM