Today’s blog is going to be an update on the inventory of homes in the Tallahassee real estate market. I want to remind the readers that this information can be found, updated twice per week, on our Tallahassee Real Estate Web site at http://www.manausa.com/market.php.
The key to figuring out the market is understanding the cycles that we must endure. From the graphic below, we can see that we spent the past two years stuck between Point A and Point B. Prices have risen and we were seeing our inventory grow. This was in part due to over-building, but primarily due to the slowing actions of the Buyers. Buyers no longer saw great value in the prices of Tallahassee homes.
The reason that we track inventory movement on the Market Bulletin is so that we can get an early warning for any shifts in the cycle. We began to see prices dropping about four months ago, letting us now that we had shifted between Points B. and C.
This shift can be very subtle and it typically cannot be identified without tracking a one-year-inventory-trend of homes in the Tallahassee real estate market. Seasonality in the real estate market causes inventory adjustments year-long, so it takes a one-year trend to truly identify these market shifts.
The next key that we are looking for is inventory falling, as we see in the graphic between Points C. and D. Again, it takes a one-year trend to confirm that inventory is definitely falling, but some of the market graphs below are showing signs that we have moved to this phase of the market cycle.
Tallahassee Real Estate Market 30-Day Inventory Trend
This first chart is the shortest “short-term” trend chart that we maintain. The implications of what is demonstrated are fantastic…. inventory levels in Tallahassee appear to be dropping. But remember, this is just a short-term trend and we could be seeing the results of seasonality.
Tallahassee Housing Inventory Levels 90-Day Trend
Even more exciting, we find that the 90-day trend chart supports the 30-day trend. We are seeing inventories coming down over the past quarter of the year. If this trend continues, we will see if finally impact the 1/2 year trend below.
Tallahassee Homes - 180 Day Inventory Trend
Unfortunately, our 6-month trend shows that our inventory is still increasing. Only time will tell if the short-term movements will stick around long enough to affect the long-term trend.
Inventory Trends In The Tallahassee Real Estate Market
This chart summarizes the three previous charts. Once we have been tracking inventory levels for a year, this chart will speak volumes on the condition and future of inventory movement in the Tallahassee real estate market.
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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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