OK, here it goes. Let me take a deep breath.
I have a pretty extensive professional resume. I have soldiered for almost twenty years now. I have studied several languages. Spanish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Croatian, & Albanian. (and German drinking songs)
I am an accomplished pilot, (Flew my Cessna 150 from Monterey to Tampa) Real Estate Broker, Builder, Communications Technician, (old Signal Corp Days).
I have worked in various Government capacities that were very great jobs. And done some cool stuff that I will not elaborate on, just know it is hi-speed low drag kind of stuff, and I enjoyed it. (Because I survived it)
I have a fantastic wife and wonderful children, and a relationship with god that I hold dearly.
My family has been in Tampa since the Rough Riders passed through on the way to Cuba and I am as native as the Gasparilla Parade and Ybor City Brewing.
I have testified as an Expert Witness in Tampa Bay Courts as to the value of land and been called as a 3rd party reviewer on the same.
So here it is....The truth about Tampa Bay Real Estate. And I figure I am kinda qualified to offer this expert opinion.
There is no bubble. None. Not even a bubblet. No one is even chewing any gum. What we have is a correction, an overdue correction. Which gives us an opportunity.
Some of you are saying to your selves, but Gary....(And I don't know why you keep saying that to your selves) the media keeps telling us that there is a bubble.
I know they do. I need to get a job in the media. All I have to do is scare you into watching or reading and sell more advertising.
So what is going on........????? A long over due correction is occurring. What do we do about it. We find buyers.
We as Real Estate Professionals have a slow learning curve sometimes. This is brought on by our natural instincts and our feeling of duty to our clients. We truly want what is best for our clients and therefore we tend to err on the side of caution. But that leads us to adapting more slowly sometimes.
When the market changed, many were still running around trying to grab up listings. ("You gotta list to last")
Bu then the media started crying about the bubble. Next thing you know the Home Depot has a camera crew on isle 8 showing the last FSBO signs, like a hurricane is coming through, and it is a gallon of spring water with magical powers that will fuel a generator too.
About a week went buy and the great garage sale of 2006 sprung up. There was a garage sale on every block (families getting ready to move) for miles and then every real estate company in town was making orders at the local sign company. Lock boxes sold out and my sign guy ran out of posts.
So what brings this post on, why this blog? What is your point?
I was talking to a client about 5 minutes before I signed on line and he asked me for a summary or STATE of the bubble for tomorrows show. (Local radio)
This is what I told him.
We are in the lowest Interest rates in 30 years STILL. We have a global economy that we didn't have 30 years ago and so we won't wait 30 years again. Maybe 6.
We had Iraq, Katrina, and Greenspan retire all at once. We have Insurance raping the economy. (if you don't like my choice word, give me a better one, and explain how my house has more liability this year than it did last year.)
Then we had Bernanke raise interest rates almost every session since he took the job. But now he has stopped.
And Realtors are starting to realize the Buyers are clients too.......yea, remember them......Buyers. SO I think we are about to see a change in the market again. Why??????
Look around you, advertising is starting to change. Firms and agents alike are beginning to gather buyers again. Buyers are starting to realize that this can't last. Prices have fallen slightly and the interest rates are still down.
So what happens next. Well if we learn from our history and if one other item falls into place like for instance, we have a slow hurricane season...hmmmm........or Bernanke stops raising interest rates, hhmmmmmm......or oil prices drop...(well I can dream can't I) all of those buyers that have had their eye on that house hoping for that price drop before an offer will pounce, and they will pounce hard!
The market will explode with offers and counter offers and the sign guy will be busy. You will have a bunch of extra lockboxes and sign panels in your garage and running around looking for more buyers....but....wait.....the inventory will start to dwindle and then what.
Balance is the key. Listings will always bring you buyers and buyers will again be listings. But you must maintain a balance and grab your crystal balls out of the closets and dust them off. They usually work if you read aloud to them all of the things that brought us to this current market and explain to them how it happened and snuck up on some of us.
I hope that some of you find this insightful. If not, at least entertaining.
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