Positive Market Views

In real estate, as in most areas of life, it's generally a good idea to try to see the silver lining without allowing blind optimism to cloud the real picture. But in this industry particularly, it is certainly refreshing to read anything from the media that portrays the positive side of the market conditions.

As I have always held the opinion that real estate is a local, not national, market, recently there has been an increase in agreement with this fact from prominent financial writers. Amy Hoak of Marketwatch stated that "Home prices aren't tanking everywhere", and that only five states - California , Arizona , Nevada , Florida , and Michigan - are currently experiencing a true housing recession. John Wasik with the Bloomberg News added further commentary that some of the housing market is "doing fine". "Fine" may seem to be a far cry from where you would like to see your industry, but after seeing so much negative publicity for such a long time, having well respected reporters agreeing with the National Association of Realtors' stance is quite refreshing.

It is also important to keep in mind that even in some of the coolest markets, prices are still at a level above where they were five years ago. In our local market, for example, the average sales price in 2007 for a single family home was higher than the average sales price in 2005, which was a record breaking year in itself. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight ranked Montana as the 4 th "Hottest" market based on the annual one year growth rate of housing prices at 6.9 percent using data through December 2007. The Bozeman area saw rates even higher than that.

So, what keeps a market from falling into the "bust" category? Mostly it is employment growth, population surges, and moderate housing price increases. And generally these types of markets are not the ones that you read about in the media headlines. But these are the markets to be in if you are relocating, thinking of retiring, or are searching for a second home or investment location.

Our area is positioned well to meet the criteria of a healthy market that should see continued economic and housing growth. According to the Prospera Business Network's 2007 Economic Profile, the Gallatin and Park County region is one of "the fastest growing economic areas in the northern Rocky Mountains ."

Fortunately, the economy in our area is diverse and remains in a growth mode. It was reported that Gallatin County has over 4,600 business establishments with an additional 800+ in Park Country. Industries that show dominance include construction, professional and technical services and retail, but were are privileged to have a wide spectrum of thriving industries.

It is predicted that trends in population should continue to go towards the lesser populated areas in the Southern and Western United States . Additionally, quality growth planning that keeps infrastructural costs, and therefore property taxes, in check will assist in attracting new homeowners to those respective communities. Other amenities that could bring empty-nesters to an area include public transportation and/or less commuting to centralized city cores and cultural attractions.

The Gallatin and Park County area continues to receive accolades nationally on the merits of beautiful scenery, extensive outdoor opportunities, blue-ribbon trout streams and rivers, world-class downhill skiing, Yellowstone National Park , and Montana State University . So again, when reading about the real estate market as a struggling industry, keep in mind that the Gallatin Valley is a market in and of itself.

Robyn Erlenbush is owner of ERA Landmark Real Estate (with offices in Bozeman, Big Sky, Livingston and Clyde Park) and Intermountain Property Management. She can be reached at robyn@eralandmark.com.