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Fairbanks Alaska - Bucking the 'Zillow' trends...

By
Home Builder with Jesse Clifton & Associates AREC License #15292
This morning I open up the 'net and start reading the news (my how times have changed I tell you) and the first article I come across is from Bloomberg; One third of new owners owe more than house is worth. "Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth... Fairbanks Alaska Real Estate

Ok, so that's not exactly new news, is it? Can anyone say 'declining market area?' :)

Aside from the "negative equity and declining prices are making it difficult for homeowners to sell property for a profit" (duh) comment, what I found most interesting (aka comical) about this article is that Zillow is the source of information for home prices.

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm all for folks coming up with new and inventive ways to make a buck, even if they are wrong more times than not and do more to confuse consumers about market value than just about anyone I know. But Zillow as the source of accurate real estate sales information? Seriously? They don't even have a value assigned for our personal residence nor are they even remotely close in any of the other dozen home sales I checked both in Fairbanks or Anchorage as well as North Carolina or Mississippi.

Btw, while the Fairbanks market is struggling, here are a few charts you might find interesting. The first shows the average sales price in Fairbanks and North Pole from 1999 through YTD 2008. Although we've leveled off a bit, prices have been increasing since early 2000. The second shows the average sales price for the period between 2005 and 2008; otherwise known as 'the hot years' in real estate. Notice that while we've seen some periods of decline our average price is still on the rise. Lastly, look at the period from July 2007 through July 2008; the year of massive foreclosures, short sales, near unprecedented bank failures and billions in write-offs where our average price is UP 7%.

Bottom line, folks... if you want to know what your home is worth call a Realtor. Zillow might be fun to play with but don't make any decisions based on what they have to say. Their model might improve but as of today, it's about as accurate as a rock.

Fairbanks Alaska Real Estate

Fairbanks Alaska Real Estate

Fairbanks Alaska Real Estate


Jesse and Kathy Clifton Fairbanks Real Estate Professionals Thinking about buying or selling real estate in Fairbanks or Interior Alaska? We know Fairbanks real estate – Jesse and Kathy are your local Fairbanks real estate experts.

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Comments(19)

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Richard Weisser
Richard Weisser Realty - Newnan, GA
Richard Weisser Retired Real Estate Professional

Jesse...

I like your trend lines, if you flip your screen upside down you will see my area!

Aug 12, 2008 06:17 AM
Gary Woltal
Keller Williams Realty - Flower Mound, TX
Assoc. Broker Realtor SFR Dallas Ft. Worth

Jesse, I find Zillow humorous as well in our state which is a non-disclosure sales price state. Zillow has ranges off $90,000 sometimes from sale prices. You have picked up on the ridiculousness of it all Jesse. It's nice to see a good chart like you have there for Fairbanks and North Pole.

Aug 12, 2008 06:21 AM
Martha Brown
Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc., Annapolis MD 21403 - Annapolis, MD
Your Homes Around Annapolis Agent

Jesse- Zillow smillow. I do not know how they can rightfully justify their pricing. I checked my own sweet abode the other day and according to Zillow I am down $250,000 in two years. Yikes! I better go hide in a corner and hope my lender doesn't see that. The charts are definitely a great idea and I need to get hopping on them for my area.

Aug 12, 2008 08:17 AM
Kevin O'Shea
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties - White Plains, NY
White Plains, NY Real Estate

Hi Jesse,

An important part of that is "Who bought in the last five years".  There are a lot of folks who have a lot of equity who have owned for a long time.

All the best!

Aug 12, 2008 09:58 AM
Debbie DiFonzo
Debbie DiFonzo - United Country VIP Realty, SW Missouri - Lebanon, MO
Lebanon MO and Buffalo Missouri Real Estate

Zillow is way off base for Missouri, another state that does not disclose. In fact, one housing report I just read had Missouri up 4% for the 1st quarter of 2008 over the same time period in 2007.

Aug 12, 2008 01:48 PM
Cameron Wilson
Labrum Real Estate - Murrieta, CA
The Short Guy - Murrieta,Temecula,Menifee Californ

Had a seller call me 1 year ago when we had their house on the market for $589,000 all upset because Zillow said it was worth $450,000. Told them to trust me as I had seen the house and knew what I was doing.

Sold for $580,000 !!!!

 

Aug 12, 2008 01:59 PM
Sondra Meyer:
EXP Realty, LLC - Corpus Christi, TX
See It. Experience It. Live It.

Jessie, as you say, Realtors know their areas. 

Aug 12, 2008 02:19 PM
Marchel Peterson
Results Realty - Spring, TX
Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro

JESSE, so Zillow is where I would go to find the facts, not a real estate agent with access to the MLS!!  Makes sense to me (lol).  The media never fails to amaze me!!

Aug 12, 2008 02:42 PM
Susan Mangigian
RE/MAX Preferred - West Chester, PA
Chester & Delaware County Homes, Delaware and Ches

Jesse, darling!  Great post.  Zillow is wrong way more than it's right.  Even if in this case the info is true, I am sick to death of all the negative reporting. If anyone in Fairbanks needs a good realtor, they would be remiss not to give you a call, my friend. 

Aug 12, 2008 03:36 PM
Lynda Eisenmann
Preferred Home Brokers - Brea, CA
Broker Associate ,CRS,GRI,SRES, Brea,CA, Orange Co

Jesse,

Zillow as the authority, yikes, gimme a break!

At best ,I've said before, it's 50/50, imho. Not sure about others, but that's not good enough for me when I'm making one of the biggest single purchases in my life!  

Just try to tell the IRS you're right 50% of the time, not so sure how that one would work???

Aug 12, 2008 04:36 PM
TeamCHI - Complete Home Inspections, Inc.
Complete Home Inspections, Inc. - Brentwood, TN
Home Inspectons - Nashville, TN area - 615.661.029

Jesse, I hate to be upside down in any loan. But like so many people have replied, I would not trust Zillow as a source...

Aug 12, 2008 08:54 PM
Jason Pastucha
Realtywnc.com - Keller Williams Asheville - Asheville, NC

Zillow, Trulia, great sources to play with and get insight.  Not a be all end all to complete information.  Nice post, thanks for sharing.  JP

Aug 12, 2008 11:50 PM
Trey Thurmond
BCR Realtors - College Station, TX
College Station , Texas Homes

Jesse

You are right. Evwery market is different and to get up to the second values talk with a local agent.

Aug 12, 2008 11:53 PM
Audrey June-Forshey
RE/MAX Realty Services - Darnestown, MD
GRI, Gaithersburg, MD

Funny, I had buyers look up a house that they wanted to make an offer on.  Zillow said the property was worth $40,000 more than it was listed for, so they thought they were getting a great deal.  Then I said, let me do a CMA because I think the house is over priced.  I was right and they were amazed that the house was really worth about $20,000 LESS than it was listed for using comps.

Aug 13, 2008 04:47 AM
Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Broker
Elizabeth Anne Weintraub, Broker - Sacramento, CA
Put 40 years of experience to work for you

Zillow means nothing. It's often way off.

However, I like to use the S&P/Case-Shlller charts for comparison. You can find charts online. They are very revealing.

elizabeth weintraub sacramento land park real estate agent

Aug 13, 2008 03:09 PM
Paddy (Patricia) Pizappi
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty - Pine Bush, NY
Real Estate Associate Broker Hudson Valley NY

Good news about Fairbanks Jesse.  I am concerned about the whole Zillow situation. Zillow should never be used as a "source of information" for a news story.  It is way to inaccurate.  Many sellers and buyers are trying to use Zillow Fabrications as basis for pricing and offers these days.  It is only adding to an already difficult situation.

Aug 13, 2008 10:49 PM
Todd Clark - Retired
eXp Realty LLC - Tigard, OR
Principle Broker Oregon

I am amazed how often the news and home owners take the information from Zillow as gospel, yet if a newspaper was wrong as often as they are they would be out of the business in less than six months.

Todd Clark, Helping Families Home - www.IFoundYourNewHome.com

Aug 18, 2008 05:11 PM
Susie Blackmon
Ocala, FL
Ocala, Horses, Western Wear, Horse Farms, Marketing

Hi there, great post about Zillow, and of course I loved the Bucking ... reference! 

Aug 20, 2008 10:34 PM
Kathy Torline
ERA Herman Group Real Estate - Colorado Springs, CO
Colorado Springs Real Estate Blog 719-287-1049

Jesse:  Great post!   I think I need to go over to Zillow and check out what they are saying about Colorado.

 

Aug 20, 2008 11:28 PM