Real Estate Trends for 2009

What I see as key real estate trends for 2009

1) Social

A) Increasing numbers of SENIORS. Many will keep on working past their "normal" retirement age as they've lost money in the stock market in the past 8 years.

B) Pent-up demand from first-time buyers as they establish new households.

C) People staying in place while aging. My "average" client has now lived in his home for 19 years.

D) More real estate people using Linked-in, YouTube and FaceBook.

E) Fewer real estate companies and agents. Those that survive take larger market share.

2) Economic

A) Continuing high rates of unemployment. Fierce competition for jobs in distressed areas such as Ohio and Michigan.

B) Relocating buyers will negotiate so that their old home is no longer their responsibility.

C) Lenders underwriting standards will continue to evolve into stricter guidelines. Strange concept that buyers will have to have funds for a down payment in addition to a job.

D) The foreclosure states of California, Florida and Nevada will be inundated with foreclosure properties. The lenders will not have enough people to handle them efficiently.

3) Technology

A) Increased use of online search engines for buyers. Expect that over 90% of all buyers will be surfing real estate on line.

B) Increased use of 'smart' phones. More Blackberry and I-phones which receive email and permit an immediate reply.

C) More agents writing unread, poorly written blogs.

D) Lead generation companies coming between the potential client and the agent and charging hefty fees.

E) Newspapers in print format disappear. We get our news online or from TV or podcasts.

4) Political

A) The candidates will make promises but their actions after election will be too late and too weak.

B) The American taxpayer will bail out the banks and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac to the tune of several billion dollars.

C) The economy will remain sluggish and until the overwhelming housing inventory sells off, prices will remain depressed.

D) California, Florida and Nevada will take several years to recover

5) Fringe drivers or Black Swan Events. (Black Swan are events that are so outside the realm of possibility that they surprise most everyone. Thanks to Doug Kass of Real Money for introducing me to this term.)

A) A terrorist attack on U. S. soil decimates an entire city. The shock, much like 9/11, causes us to sit and watch the developments on TV, forgetting our business for at least a month.

B) A flu pandemic kills millions of people world-wide. The U.S. is put on curfew and only essential services and service providers are allowed out. Eventually, this will occur.

C) A war over an oil pipeline causes gasoline prices to soar over $6.00 a gallon. People on fixed incomes can’t afford to heat their homes and shelters are overcrowded.

D) Potential buyers trying to buy and finding that the underwriters demand their wallets and their lives (an old Jack Benny routine), continue renting.

I write a real estate prediction blog every year. Here’s the link to what I wrote: http://moveuptonaperville.blogspot.com/search?q=predictions”

© Move UP to Naperville Blog, Eileen Landau