Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee Real Estate Market Conditions 2007-2008 January 1, 2007-August 27, 2007 versus January 1, 2008-August 27, 2008

By
Real Estate Agent with Formerly Lakes Region Realty Group now BHHS Verani Realty

My personal impressions aside, the number of Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront home sales is down so far for the year 2008 compared to 2007. The average selling price of Moultonbrough Lake winnipesaukee waterfront home sales, however,  is up....significantly. 

The average Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront home sale was only $960,152 in 2007, which increased to $1,272,918 in 2008*.

(*Based on statistics from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for the time period January 1, 2007-August 27, 2007 compared to January 1, 2008-August 27, 2008.  This includes Lake Winnipesaukee owned waterfront home sales only, not condos, land, or water access properties.)

This trend for higher selling prices, but with fewer sales has been a trend since the beginning of 2008.  (Please note that my blog entry "Moultonborough NH Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront home sales statistics for January 1st-February 18th 2007 vs. this same period in 2008" notes that the average selling price for January 1 2008-Feberuary 18, 2008 was $2,000,000 on the lake versus $$1,022,400  for this same time period in 2007.  

My personal impression is that activity on the high Moultonbrough Lake Winnipesaukee real estate market has increaseed significantly in recent weeks.  Our office has had many more waterfront  customers coming though through our doors...and through the doors of our many Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront real estate listings. The Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee homes for sale, which are seeing this surge of activity will likely see offers brought to their Sellers in the upcoming weeks.

It is anybody's guess how many Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee properties will go "under contract." My personal experience is that the nicest properties are the ones that always hold their value or apprciate. No matter how cheaply an inferior property is purchased for, it will never attract the number of potential buyers that the superior Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee properties attract. 

Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee land values are not depreciating.  The "deflation" that has occurred will be the extent of the deflation.  The best land parcels are more scarce than ever and the new changes to the Shoreline Protection Act as of July 1, 2008 will further restrict what can be done to lakefront property.   Moultonborugh Lake Winnipesaukee new construction therefore, which had foundations in prior to July 1, 2008, made full use of the more relaxed laws, and will be more valuable to buyers.  Buyers usually do not look kindly on having more restrictions placed on a proeprty for which they are paying millions of dollars.)

To sum up, Moultonborough lakefront property which appraises at $1,000,000 or more currently,  will hold its value or appreciate in the coming months.  What is your opinion?

Comments (4)

Anonymous
Charlie

Housing prices on the lake will continue to fall.  Average value is a meaningless measure of price changes.    It can be skewed by the price range distribution of sales during the period.   (ie a single sale of a very high priced property)   Level of inventory (months of supply which is around 36+ months a 1-3mill range)  of housing which has always been a better measure of pricing direction.   In addition there are many properties currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a break in the market which will keep inventory high for the foreseeable future.  There has been more auction activity on the lake in the high ranges too which is an indication of weakness too.  Many argue scarcity of waterfront will protect pricing; but that has never been the case (values plummeted during the 93 housing bust on the lake)  Long term data indicates that housing on average appreciates at only 1% above inflation and until we return to historical norms the pricing pressures will continue.   See the Robert Shiller index.  He is the only one appling economic models rather then seat of the pants guessing that is prevelent in the relator ranks today. 

Jun 17, 2010 02:46 AM
#1
Anonymous
Bob G

Charlie sound more knowlegable then most realators that I have talked to.  They will tell you anything to make the sale.   None of them were warning us before the crash. 

Jun 17, 2010 04:08 AM
#2
Anonymous
nicole

Hi Charlie,

 Thank you for your June 17th 2010 comments to my blog posted in August 27/2008. 

We are now in 2010 and it is interesting to compare 2009 vs. 2008 in all the Lake Winnipesaukee shored towns, including Moultonborough, NH and Meredith, NH.   You can visit my website www.NicoleWatkins.com and visit the real estate trends page to see what high end lake properties have sold recently on Lake Winnipesaukee.

Are you a Realtor? If so, what do you have pending and what have you sold on Lake Winnipesaukee in the last year?  I find that what properties particular Realtors have sold tends to color their impressions of the market.  No one has a crystal ball, unfortunately so none of us can predict a crash or a boom with any certainty.

I do agree that average selling price can be meaningless or misleading.  I prefer to use median selling price information.  Many agencies send out data comparing average selling prices in towns showing a series of years, which indicate an increase in average selling prices over time, and, indeed, one or two high sales in any given year, such as the two high end Meredith, NH Winnipesaukee sales last year, both on Wagon Wheel Trail, for $2,995,000 and $7,800,000, did indeed skew the Meredith Winnipesaukee statistics to look as though the fact that average selling prices for Meredith Winnipesaukee going up from the previous year indicated a stronger market. 

With slightly less than half the sales in the Meredith, NH Lake Winnipesaukee market in 2009 compared to 2008, and many properties with longer days on market, it is impossible to have a body of data significant enough to predict the future or draw meaningful conclusions. Most Winnipesaukee Sellers do not need the money from the sale of their home and would prefer to wait a few years, rather than see another person get the $500,000+/- in profit from letting them buy their luxury Winnipesaukee lake home in a slower market.  

 As of today, I have over $9,000,000 in sales volume pending on Lake Winnipesaukee and just closed on a waterfront on Lake Winnipesaukee for over $1,000,000 last week, so I am extremely busy, despite the stand-off between Buyers and Sellers last year that caused the stagnation in the market.  I had TWO luxury Lake Winnipesaukee real estate sales fall apart last year because Sellers decided in the 11th hour that they just couldn't bear to part with their Winnipesaukee lake properties.  When it came time to sign on the dotted line....they just couldn't do it.  This is the kind of emotional and mental hold Lake Winnipesaukee properties have on the people who own them.  This is NOT data that will ever be available in MLS data feed or available to Robert Schiller.

Certainly no one should ever buy Lake Winnipesaukee real estate unless they want to be here part of the year,  and they have a driving passion to do so.  We are not selling stocks, but properties that people live in and spend some of the best times of their lives with families and friends.  If people are buying merely to try to buy low and and sell high, this is not the place to do it in my opinion, as our Lakes Region prices have not dropped as significantly as other parts of the country and will likely remain more stable if historical cycles are any indicator.

  I have a few other comments that I'll make a bit later in the day.  Thanks, Nicole

 

Jun 17, 2010 04:50 AM
#3
Anonymous
Charlie

A quote from each of your posts.

1.  The average selling price of Moultonbrough Lake winnipesaukee waterfront home sales, however,  is up....significantly. 

2.   I do agree that average selling price can be meaningless or misleading

   Looks like spin to me.     You only have to look back to 1993 data on waterfront properties to see that the points you make are misleading.  Property values are down and continuing to fall. 

Although the famous comment "its different this time" comes to mind.

Jun 17, 2010 10:35 AM
#4