Market Outlook
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Price Trend: Negative
Price Volatility: High
Recommendation: Floating with an Eye on the Market
_________________________________________________________________
Current Conditions: Today's Economic Data (all times PST)
FNMA 6.0 100-28 (-3) GDP 5:30
GNMA 6.0 101-14 (-2) Jobless Claims 5:30
10yr Yield 3.814%
_________________________________________________________________
Commentary:
Bonds are under pressure this morning after the first revision to Q2 GDP came in higher than expected. Exports and the stimulus package are credited with the higher than anticipated growth. Bonds could have sold off harder on this news but the recent slowdown in the global economy will likely start showing up in export numbers and the stimulus effect has waned so the outlook for the 3rd quarter is for slower growth.
Later today the Treasury will be auctioning $22bln of 5yr notes. Typically, bond prices decline before an auction and rise after the auction. Volumes continue to be low which will support price volatility.
Tomorrow is a short trading session with some important data being released early (PCE at 5:30). Keep that in mind when deciding on your lock/float strategy today.
This Week's Calendar
Click on a "Release" for Insight
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com |
Consensus |
Prior |
Bond Impact |
|
Aug 25 |
10:00 |
Jul |
5.00M |
4.95M |
4.90M |
4.85M |
Low |
|
|
Aug 26 |
10:00 |
Aug |
56.9 |
53.0 |
53.0 |
51.9 |
Low-Moderate |
|
|
Aug 26 |
10:00 |
Jul |
515K |
535K |
525K |
503K |
Low |
|
|
Aug 26 |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
Aug 5 |
|
|
|
|
Moderate |
|
Aug 27 |
08:30 |
Jul |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
1.3% |
Moderate |
|
|
Aug 27 |
10:35 |
Crude Inventories |
08/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
9390K |
Low |
|
Aug 28 |
08:30 |
Q2 |
1.2% |
1.1% |
1.1% |
1.1% |
High |
|
|
Aug 28 |
08:30 |
Q2 |
3.3% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
1.9% |
High |
|
|
Aug 28 |
08:30 |
08/23 |
425 |
NA |
425K |
432K |
Low |
|
|
Aug 29 |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
Moderate |
|
|
Aug 29 |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
Moderate |
|
|
Aug 29 |
09:45 |
Aug |
|
50.5 |
50.0 |
50.8 |
Moderate |
|
|
Aug 29 |
10:00 |
Aug |
|
63.0 |
62.0 |
61.7 |
Low-Moderate |
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