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Woo Hoo or WTF? A letter to my mom about the pending crash (or sale?) of the largest savings thrift at Wamu...

By
Mortgage and Lending with First Lending Solutions NMLS ID 1325784

It has been several months since I've had the opportunity to post. My mother taught me that if you can't say anything nice, then don't say anything at all.......

Mom...I apologize in advance for ignoring your wisdom.

I can't resist any further; and NO, I will not tell you what WTF means....I can't tell you everything.

This industry that I'm in is coming apart at the seams. You know that while I've always been wise about my investments, as well as the movements I made throughout my career, none has affected me as negatively as my days at WaMu. I spent the most painful year at my life at that institution as the leadership under Kerry Killinger concentrated on what I felt was the riskiest program for the everyday consumer; the Option ARM that allowed you to add to your mortgage balance under the assumption that values would continue to increase until the end of time. Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, and the whole world preached that it would be 'easy enough to get out of'. Well, let's say that didn't quite worked out the way it was promisted. It allowed me to see an opportunity that reminded me of your career in the aerospace industry that in many ways became the impetus and basis of my book, Finding Foreclosures, by Entrepreneur Press.

You taught me to live within my means, manage my credit, and purchase real estate, while always working on continuing education as a way of staying ahead of others.

I have not amounted to being the CEO of a major bank such as Washington Mutual, but I have to wonder if wouldn't have done a better job, given my background.

Within 30 days of starting with that institution, I realized that the compensation plan was changed to reward everyone for pushing the most profitable products, without understanding if it made the most sense for the consumer. I care because it was the wrong thing to do.....What ever happened to tangible benefit?

Today, I read an article of which I've copied some of the pieces out.

The government's efforts to find a buyer, though, are being complicated by uncertainty about the magnitude of losses still lurking in Washington Mutual's home loan portfolio. "No one knows what's in their books," said a person briefed on the talks between regulators and banks. The person spoke Wednesday on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity on the matter.

Forgive me Mom, but this is total bullshit. I could repeat the things you or Grandma would say in Spanish, but then I'd really get in trouble.

As of 30 days ago, WaMu was reported as having close to 50% of their Option Arm portfolio, that was 60 days past due or more. This does NOT include the over $200M worth of home equity lines that have been frozen, closed, or also past due. That has to be in the billions of dollars in debts, not including the deferred interest that WAS recognized as income according to their accounting practices.

Do I feel sorry for the employees? Absolutely.

Yes, BUT I also know they will be far better off if JPMorgan Chase (or anyone for that matter) buys them, since they've been looking at them for years. I know at this point the government will not jump in as they have to draw a line in the sand somewhere, since you can't bail everyone out.

AIG Insurance just received an $85million injection of capital. I would take 1% of that right now. I don't know the insurance sectors financials well enough, but I know that when government steps in, it cannot be a good thing.

The lessons we've learned from this debacle in the financial sector, which includes real estate and mortgage, have made me realize how right you were all along. Wow...did I just say that? I may have not wanted to listen over the years, but I thank you for teaching me to humble and learn the lessons that an economy should not be built on constantly consuming more and more.

My behavior has already changed in the last year, as has that of my wife and kids. So let's get this over with, move WaMu and any other banking, investment, or real estate institution, into an environment where they are sold, bought out, dismantled, and forced to re-capitalize instead of making countless excuses as to why it makes sense to keep them around.

I know that my family, as well as society will be better off the faster we untangle this mess. It took years to create it; since its been close to 18 months, can we just get it over with, and get rid of the media spin, such as this other piece of the article that I saw....

After losing $6.3 billion in the past three quarters, Washington Mutual believes it is slowly healing under a new chief executive, Alan Fishman, who will receive an $8 million bonus if he can keep the nation's largest thrift alive through 2009. "I think people do know what is in our books and we've been pretty transparent," WaMu spokeswoman Olivia Riley said Wednesday, pointing to a financial update that the company released late last week. Those figures suggested WaMu's loan problems are becoming less severe compared to recent quarters, giving some analysts hope that the company can still be salvaged. Nonetheless, analysts still expect the company to sustain a loss of about $1.8 billion in the current quarter ending Sept. 30. And investors are showing little confidence in WaMu. The company's shares fell 31 cents to $2.01 Wednesday, leaving the stock price with a decline of about 85 percent decline so far this year.

 Really? $6.3 billion in losses is that it?

WaMu, you've been transparent by saying that your problems are becoming less severe? Does that mean you're still going to die, but you're going to hang in there an extra couple of weeks? Spare me.........just die already. Quick and painless (unless you're an employee or a shareholder.....I digress....)

Mom, it is inevitable that I will piss someone off by writing this, but seriously, I just couldn't hold out any more. I'm tired of waking up to hear those in different parts of my industry bicker and moan that its so difficult now....or that they somehow can't make the 3 to 4 points that Wamu was used to paying the broker community, who in turn blames WaMu for allowing them to participate in such thievery since all they did is sell the product, albeit it a far higher price and margin than was necessary, but again, don't let me get off track. My little brain might explode.

When WaMu is gone, then we will have a REAL reason to go Woo Hoo!

In the interim, I just have to think.....................WTF? What have we come down to?

Show All Comments Sort:
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA

Bill...so, how do you really feel?  I have been a rabid "The WAMU sky is falling guy" for the past 2 years, everyone thought I was nucking futs.  They are idiots and anyone that buys them has taken on a wife with a whole lot of debt and unruly kids!  The government is nucking futs as well for not letting all these bastards fail completely.  I'm done, I'm moving out of the country to Oregon...oh wait, that isn't out of the country.

Sep 17, 2008 01:03 PM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Rich

I've gotten to the point of capitulation where I realize how some players like Wamu were absolutely idiotic, along with a lot of crooked brokers and bankers, while other extremely well performing portfolios such as Thornburg are in this mess for no apparent reason aside from fear in the marketplace.

Thanks for stopping by......

Go hug a tree in Oregon, and let me know how that works for ya. :)

Sep 17, 2008 04:47 PM
Paul McFadden
Responsive Pest Control - Seattle, WA
Pest Control, Seattle, WA.

Thanks, Bill. Living in Seattle it's amazing to me that Wa. Mu., once a media darling, is probably gone. I realize life goes on. It's just a huge shock to the system!

 

Paul

Sep 18, 2008 12:22 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Paul

Killinger drove this thing into the ground by preferring profits over performance, as well as going 'all-in' with the Option Arm instead of diversifying.

I think its a great reminder that a free market system has its inherent risks in having the ability to take down the top players if they fail to continually reinvent themselves. This was on auto-pilot straight into a brick wall.

Sep 18, 2008 02:39 AM
Elizabeth Nieves
The Elizabeth Nieves Realty Group - Durham, NC
Bilingual Raleigh - Durham North Carolina Real Estate Team

Oh Bill...NOW I know why I love you so much! You tell it like it is, brother. That is MY kinda 'stuff'.

"I could repeat the things you or Grandma would say in Spanish, but then I'd really get in trouble." HeeHee...I can guess what they used to say...but, I'll play nice.

Someone had to say it...and that someone had to come from within the industry. NOT everyone has the 'guts' to stand up and say it out loud. GOOD JOB, my friend! GBU!

Sep 18, 2008 07:47 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Elizabeth

So absolutely wonderful to hear from you.....

I've already gotten heat from other sources for calling this out, but my integrity stands beyond their facade of trying to 'hold things together' as they indicated they were attempting to do.

I've got some other projects I've been working on...I can't wait to catch up with you!

GBU back!

Sep 18, 2008 09:53 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Paul

The #1 reason that companies, just like individuals, fail is because of leverage.

WaMu and several others went so overboard that it became ridiculous.....too many people felt they were invincible.

Sep 18, 2008 12:10 PM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Bill N, I realize you have a history with WaMu but in all honesty don't you think that with this $700B Treasury program aimed at buying these very loans from lenders like WaMu that at today's stock price WaMu is a good investment?

Bill Roberts

Sep 24, 2008 09:03 AM
Todd Hillman,
HomeSmart - Phoenix, AZ
Broker Associate, M.A.

Great points. Yes Wamu needs to be let to fail but in a way that does not damage any more lives. What a mess!

Sep 24, 2008 09:21 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Bill R.

I somewhat agree....it is almost a given that they will get bought out by another bank, but the downside to the stock is far too great for me to put my money into it.

Todd

Wamu will fail.....at this point, they can't do much more damage than they've already done.

Sep 24, 2008 09:48 AM
Connie Tebyani
Platinum Home Staging, Inc. : RESA-Pro - Calabasas, CA
Platinum Home Staging, Los Angeles and Ventura County

There are a lot of things going on right now that are so far beyond my meager comprehension that I think I'll join Rich in Oregon.  These government corporate bailouts are just too Mucken Fuch.  Wouldn't it be nice if the Government just used that $700M (or is it Billion) to buy all of the Foreclosures and let everyone stay in their homes.  I'd rather let the government own my house, then my entire financial future and that of my kids.  Just my $ .02

Sep 26, 2008 10:26 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Connie

It is actually $700Billion; for us numbers geeks, we'd agree that there are better ways to spend it, but as a nation, we've buried ourselves into being overly leveraged and living on credit, that if we remotely considered doing what you propose, our economy would stagnate, since credit is the 'drug of choice' in America.

One of my favorite writers at the Motley Fools summarized it in the following 2 sentences, which say so much, in such simple terms. I've italicized his comments.......

If the reliability of our credit markets is undermined, there are innumerable consequences. For the economy, the credit crisis means lower investment, lower spending, recession, business failures, and a massively devalued stock market. For the average taxpayer, this means watching 401(k)s plummet and putting on hold plans to retire, buy a house, or go to college, and for many it will mean layoffs, foreclosure, and bankruptcy. This type of crisis is not only unacceptable but also unnecessary.

While we greatly prefer free-market solutions, this is a time for government intervention, because only our Treasury has the resources to help our financial system get back on its feet. If the crisis persists, we could be in for a consumer depression, which would hurt us all far more than it would cost us to prevent it today. We do not say this with any pleasure: The choice is between taxpayers taking on the responsibility for this crisis in an orderly fashion or a non-orderly one. Either way, we're on the hook to clean up the mess.

Connie, thanks for stopping by. I love reading your stuff regarding staging, and all of the successes you've had with it.

Sep 26, 2008 10:40 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Dearest EB....

As the pooch would've been screwed regardless, we can both acknowledge that any level of stress testing failed to account for the risk premiums that would've been necessary to properly hedge against the real and/or potential losses, which in turn would've made the payments unaffordable for many; which of course would've also limited the amount of appreciation.

Do we allow everyone to merely suffer in order to prove our respective ideological points?

Oct 17, 2008 02:57 PM
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA

Bill...just to chime in on EB's points...as long as the collapse is going to come...lets give the prisoner on "tax row" a wonderful "last meal"...meaning, give the $700b to a bottom up rescue rather than a top down.  I still remember Paulson's reasoning of why they needed $700b, he didn't let on that he knew we would have to use it for Hedge Fund owner bailouts, and the public wouldn't have signed off on that.  Well, he got his blank check and wait and see how it will be misused. 

Oct 18, 2008 06:38 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Rich

We tend to agree most of the time, though I just dont feel taking a principled position and allowing the markets to fail makes a whole lot of sense.

I believe that rather than trying to explain it myself, I have to remind myself of John Maynard Keynes, whom I've decided to quote in italic bold.....

We have reached a critical point," John Maynard Keynes wrote in March 1933. "We can ... see clearly the gulf to which our present path is leading." If governments did not take action, "we must expect the progressive breakdown of the existing structure of contract and instruments of indebtedness, accompanied by the utter discredit of orthodox leadership in finance and government, with what ultimate outcome we cannot predict."

Keynes firmly believed that in certain circumstances economies could get stuck. If individuals and businesses try to save more, they will cut the incomes of other individuals and businesses, which will in turn cut their spending. The result can be a downward spiral that will not turn up again without outside intervention.

Are you seeing the parallels today?

Oct 19, 2008 05:02 PM
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA

Hi Bill...interesting that you bring up Keynes...whose notions of macroeconomics did not even consider the possibilities of derivatives and credit default swaps, leveraged funds backed by leveraged funds.  I agree that outside intervention is necessary, but the critics of Keynes would be wagging their fingers right now..."See, I told you so...socialism!"  Bill, if I were arguing from Keynes' pulpit, I would be advocating for a $7trillion bailout; a sum that might actually have a chance in preventing the collapse.  Kashkari has a sling shot...and he is facing an army of Goliaths!

Socialism would not result from a complete collapse.  On the contrary, a true free market economy based on risk and reward would be reborn...people only risking that which they are willing to lose AND only being allowed to lose what they have, not what they might have in the future if they don't lose too much along the way.

I'm just making the argument that a quicker way to recovery would be to allow the chips to fall and only in doing so will we be able to rebuild an actual "sustainable" world economy.   GW should have declared martial law, froze deposits, nationalized the entire banking system.  THAT would have been a Keynesian remedy that would have been up to the task.

Just spit balling!  Looking forward to see what the impact will be on Tuesday and Wednesday...it isn't going to be pretty.

Oct 19, 2008 06:19 PM
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA

Hey Bill, a follow-up on Keynes...while he advocated government intervention throught monetary and fiscal policy in times contraction, he ALSO advocated prudent governmental action to PREVENT market bubbles where ever they might appear through taxation and, most recently, like Paul Volker in the 80's...through higher interest rates! 

When people invoke Keynes remedy for dealing with our current situation...why weren't those people barking Keynesian remedies during the massive expansion we were part of????????????????

Oct 20, 2008 04:28 AM
Colette Gray
Helping seniors age in place everywhere in California, Arizona, NV, Washington, Oregon - Redondo Beach, CA
Senior Loan Officer, HomeSafe Reverse Mortgages

Hi Bill,

Just as bad as the Option ARMs were the 125% LTV loans.  And you know what?  I'm getting ads in the mail for those same loans all over again.  Some banks definitely should fail.

I think all of the people who were told an Option ARM was a great idea were also thinking that their Loan Officers would follow up when the rates got better to refi them into a fixed.  With the mass exodus of LO's from the industry at the end of 2010, that didn't happen as much as it should have.  A lot of borrowers don't pay attention to rates, either.

As a Reverse Mortgage Loan Officer I talk to a lot of people who are on the brink of foreclosure due to these types of loans.  Some I can still help but unfortunately, many of them have tapped all of the equity in their homes and aren't able to do one.

Jun 09, 2011 10:01 AM
Bill Nazur
First Lending Solutions - Riverside, CA

Colette

I completely understand your position.....however, I also see that 125's will have a resurgence in the future.....hmm, I have to really ponder this one.

On the other hand, the Option ARM was simply abused....especially when it became a low FICO, stated income product.

UGH.

Jun 20, 2011 03:50 PM