This blog post a little overdue, but worth posting for anyone tracking the Portland area housing market.
Last Thursday, Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, visited Portland to give a presentation at our local board meeting. The purpose of inviting him to town was to hear his perspective on the Portland market and where it stands in relation to the rest of the country.
Like the chief economists who came before him, Dr. Yun has been up against a lot of criticism from people who feel that his forecasts are rosier than reality, and that he intentionally makes them that way to create a false sense of confidence with consumers. As I learned last week, that couldn't be further from the truth.
Leading up to his visit, I was chosen to write an article for Press Herald's real estate section announcing his arrival. I was also lucky enough to go to a dinner with him and a few other Portland Realtors the night before his presentation, at which we got talk to him on a more personal level and hear about what he does day to day.
Through my research for the article, I learned that Dr. Yun was extremely well-esteemed within the economic community and ranked the fifth most accurate economic forecaster in the U.S. last year by USA Today. And at dinner, I learned why. He told us that he actually has a staff of 17 economists that work with him, just collecting data on home sales. No other economist has that big of a staff. He also said that other economists constantly look to him for guidance as to where the housing market is going, since he is the only one who has access to the kind of data he's able to collect. And, contrary to what some say, his forecasts aren't always positive. In his words, "the facts are the facts."
That's why I was incredibly relieved when, in the midst of some huge government initiatives in the housing sector and the corresponding trouble in the stock market, he gave a relatively optimistic forecast on the Portland market, projecting price stabilization and maybe even some modest gains in mid-2009. The write-up from the Press Herald is below. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=211039&ac=PHnws
He also made his PowerPoint presentation available on the Greater Portland Board of Realtors Website. www.portlandboardofrealtors.com
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