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A little more evidence we're past bottom of market cycle

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Mortgage and Lending with Your Castle Real Estate

Take a look at the first page, for AUN (Aurora North).  Note these positive market trends this year:
-          number of active listings steadily declining
-          average list price pretty stable (finally!)
-          U/C up dramatically
-          Number of sales / month up (partially seasonality)
-          DOM dropping
-          Stability in average sold prices and sold price as % of list
-          Sold price as % original price UP a lot - banks are getting better at pricing
-          Number of expired listings down
 
Every indicator is improving this year in AUN.  You will see the same trends in DSW (southwest Denver  County), but not as marked an improvement as AUN.
 
By contrast look at DSE (southeast Denver County).  
-          listings are up (they should be - seasonality)
-          Note the average list price ($758,000) is a lot higher than the average sold price ($418,000).  Lots of expensive listings brining  up the average ask price, but apparently they are not selling
-          DOM (Days on Market) declining as it normally would due to seasonality
-          Average price declining rather rapidly.  Probably a mix issue - smaller, cheaper homes are probably selling better.
 
Since these homes in DSE are pricier, it has more of an effect on the "average" sales price on metro Denver.  Oddly, we could see improvement led by the cheapo neighborhoods, with the lux neighborhoods falling behind for a while. It will be interesting to watch.    

(C) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate

 

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Matthew Haraminac
Peak Real Estate Advisors - Denver, CO

It is amazing to see how much some of these markets have dropped and look like they are continuing to drop.  I hope the bottom is near for some of these communities.  On the flip side, what a great market to buy an investment in.

Oct 24, 2008 04:11 PM
Chuck Kane
Your Castle Real Estate - Arvada, CO

Have you heard that the days on market have been decreasing the last two months?  I think that maybe we are past the bottom and climbing on up. It will still take some time but I'm seeing the first signs of things turning around.

Oct 25, 2008 02:06 PM
Todd Houghton
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO

It is amazing to see how much some of these markets have dropped and look like they are continuing to drop.  I hope the bottom is near for some of these communities.  On the flip side, what a great market to buy an investment in, right?
I saw an article in the paper about how many of owner occupants are having a really hard time competing with investors.  It seems that even though prices are still declining, the listing brokers for banks are creating bidding situations.

Oct 25, 2008 03:17 PM
Joe Heffley
Your Castle Real Estate - Highlands Ranch, CO

Your information reflects a true depiction of what is going on in the Denver market. I like the way you have put this information. It is insightful but matter of fact.  Do you send this information to your clients or just use it in your brokerage?

Oct 26, 2008 03:09 PM