Today, Trulia CEO Pete Flint hosted an Industry call with some of the top leaders in Real Estate - Jonathan Miller, President/CEO and Co-Founder of Miller Samuel, Barbara Corcoran, Real Estate Guru and Founder of The Corcoran Group and David Michonski, Chairman and CEO of Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy.
Listen to the call or download it here.
Pete started the call by sharing some thoughts and observations about today’s real estate market:
When Trulia launched three years ago, housing prices were at an all time high. Toxic sub-prime loans were quite easy to get. Since then, the market has done a virtual 360º. According to President Bush, the US economy is on the brink of serious financial crisis.
Pete noted, “The recent economic and housing data are sobering. US unemployment has hit a 5-year high, foreclosure filings are up 12% month-over-month nationwide and according to NAR numbers released yesterday, existing home sales are down 10.7% from the beginning of the year.”
Overall, Americans are “spooked” by what has happened in the financial markets, housing market and the overall US economy. Citizens are confused about what the $700 billion bailout means and what will happen if passed or not. Lot’s of uncertainty. We wanted to better understand how Americans felt about the financial and housing crisis so just last week, we commissioned a study with Harris Interactive.
We’ll release the results next week but want to share some early findings about what consumers are thinking:
1. Less than 50% of Americans think home ownership is a great long term investment
2. Only 56% of Americans view owning a home as part of achieving the American Dream
3. 22% of Americans plan to downsize in the next 12-months and 59% of respondents never plan to move from their current home
We’re paying close attention to this early feedback and wonder if the change in people’s thoughts about home ownership is a major shift or just a knee-jerk reaction.
To get things started, Pete asked the panel, “What does the crisis mean to the Market and Homeowners Today? and “Over the next 6-12 months,what can we expect to see happening both in New York and Nationally?”
Jonathan Miller said, “The key economic driver in New York City is Wallstreet which accounts for 5% of the jobs and 23% of the income.” He talked about how the credit crunch really started in the summer of 2007. The expectations of bonuses were all over the map. We had 4-5 years of record bonus levels. New York was the second to last to feel the slowdown behind Charlotte, North Carolina. Ironic, since New York was the origin of the crisis led by securitized mortgages. Inventory in Manhattan is modest today, lower than last year and higher than 2 years ago. 52% of sales in New York City are Co-op’s - Cooperative apartments where owners own shares in a corporation rather than real property. He thinks that in 2009, housing stock will drop more. The bottom line - the credit situation needs to be resolved first before we see any recovery.
Barbara Corcoran asked, “Is Bad News Contagious?” Her resounding answer was - Yes! She says that home buyers are the first to run for the hills. Even qualified people are on the sidelines - this is true for 90% of the markets. Bad news passes fast from one guy to the next. We all have it big time. Ironically, now is actually a good time to buy because inventory is up, prices are lower - these are the good ol’ days. But everyone is out-psyched by the media and all the bad news. There is always a silver lining if you just look.
According to Barbara - Sellers have a deaf ear and take a year to wake up. Prices are not low enough and inching them down is not the answer.
They need to:
1. Drastically reduce the price and undercut every home in their category by 20-25%. There’s always a market for under priced homes.
2. Wait it out
3. Rent the house
She says people have options. When asked about her prediction for the rest of 2008 and 2009 she says, “Who the heck knows!” People are beat down and feel bad already - can’t get any worse. Actually, she’s annoyed by the whole thing. Feels like the American Dream is going down the drain.
David Michonski said, It all depends on the credit. It’s all locked up. Housing is affected negatively. Some of the richest New Yorker’s are losing jobs which will effect the upper part of the NYC market. A new entity has to get all the bad debt off the books. He says, “Sooner we get off the funny money, sooner stabilization occurs.”
Credit Crisis - Loss of confidence in American banking and finance. Thinks the Commercial real estate markets will be the 1st to see trouble. Rents will come down on Madison Avenue. Retail rents will come down.
David Carusso of the Associated Press asked Barbara if we had data to show to scared buyers. Barbara said that it’s harder to get hands on money but the banks have money. The media is just confusing buyers - misinformation. If you have good credit, it’s a good time to get financing. Not a good time for those with bad credit but they aren’t in the market to buy anyway.
Jonathan Miller jumped in and added that those who qualify will actually qualify for less today than 2 years ago. Ratio for qualifying has tightened. This is really due the the three year window from 2004-2006 where the bad lending practices thrived - securitization. After 9/11, the Fed pumped money into the economy. When housing prices rise, participation falls.
Brad Reagan from Smart Money Magazine wanted to know for those with lots of cash on hand and good credit, what their strategies were and were they good strategies.
Barbara said there are brave souls in the market today.
Jonathan said there is a pause. A hesitation in the market. Too much to digest. Sense of urgency not there.
Barbara shared a remarkable story from last week where a really really famous and rich person called her, on his wife’s advice, because he wanted her opinion whether it was ok for him to sign the contract for a $47 million apartment he was in the middle of purchasing. He was about to sign the contract and was shaking in his boots. Barbara said this beats any story she’s heard over the last few weeks….
A Forbes reporter asked about pricing trends and Jonathan said that the upper 10% outperformed all other sectors of the market. There was a 30% contraction in inventory whereas there was a 31% increase in inventory in all other markets - quite the opposite.
The second home market has had a sharp drop in the number of transactions in conjunction with a rise in inventory.
David noted that currently, we’re not building enough homes for growth to meet the growing population which will grow from 300 million to 400 million by 2040
In summation, Pete asked everyone to give their 6-18 month National outlook:
Jonathan said we will see no change in 6 months. 2-3 years not so good but long term is good. We’ll move sideways in the next couple of years.
Barbara said nothing changes in the next 6 months. Will be surprised if the spring market picks up. Lack of confidence is the issue. It will depend on who leads the country and what changes they will make. We need dramatic changes to make a huge change in the market. But doesn’t have the confidence that Washington will come through. We need a leader who will come through for America.
Any Brightspots?
Jonathan likes that people are starting to come clean re: their balance sheets. We’re only in the second or third inning of the game - but we have some progress.
David says the housing recession will not have a “V-Shaped” recovery. The market is trying to find the sloppy bottom. We have a pool of demand waiting out there.
Bonus:
We hit the streets of New York City to get some thoughts from New Yorker’s about the $700 Billion Bailout proposal and how it would effect the housing market.
Here is what they had to say:
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