Denver (including Barnum) 1Q 2008 real estate trends

Real Estate Agent with Your Castle Real Estate

Recap of First Quarter 2008 Home Price Performance

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006, from $309,000 to $317,000. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 2%, to $311,000. The first quarter of 2008 was $278,000 vs. the first quarter of 2007 was $296,000: a 6% decrease. Note that prices in the first quarter are usually a bit less than the rest of the year. This is because families that tend to purchase larger, more expensive homes tend to move in the summer months when their kids are out of school.

The average price of a foreclosure or short sale dropped -3% to $188,000 from 2006 to 2007. The average price of a non-distress sale increased 5% to $370,000. Sales volume over the last twelve months is off -4% for DSF/ASF. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up +31%; non-distress seller volume is off 20%. This trend continued in the 1Q 2008; foreclosure volume was up another 15% at the expense of the non-distress sellers.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in Denver. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from April 2007 to March 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the number of homes that were sold.

The good news is that the foreclosures are likely to peak in the next six to nine months. Many of the foreclosures were due to resetting rates on ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages). There are two reasons. First, according to Bank of America data, the volume of ARM resets is set to peak in March 2008. It often takes six months or a bit longer for an ARM reset to conclude in the sale of a foreclosed home. Second, the index rates that many ARMs use have declined lately. As a result, some borrowers that might have had a huge shock if their rate reset a year ago might get less of an increase today. For these reasons, we're likely to hit the bottom of this cycle this year.

There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

(C) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate

Comments (25)

Yen Lai
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO

I agree with the above post.  I do want to add that another factor is that when you have multiple offers on a majority of listings and you are bidding way above asking price that would be another sign we are past bottom of market.

Oct 22, 2008 05:08 AM
Marcus Lee
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO

One other way to tell we are bottom of market is by looking at the percentage of foreclosures compared to retail sales in each area.  Investors that are flipping are helping :bring back the retail buyer. 

Oct 22, 2008 05:10 AM
Lillian Lively
Your Castle Real Estate - Lakewood, CO

I agree with the post above but I do want to say that I do have "retail" buyers and we are in bidding situations as well.  It seems that anything under 200k and is in good shape are a free for all.

Oct 22, 2008 05:14 AM
Laura Lomba-Berg
Your Castle Real Estate - Centennial, CO

I think that we can all agree that the market under a certain price point is absolutely crazy.   The real question is when will the press pick up on it.  I really hope it will be awhile, we need to keep them at bay for a little while until the floodgates open.

Oct 22, 2008 05:17 AM
Robin Lucy
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO

Hopefully the bottom of market will be picked up by the media.  Then people will start buying more and maybe that will create a cycle of more listings, more confidence in our market, etc.

Oct 22, 2008 05:20 AM
Joe Marino
Your Castle Real Estate - Littleton, CO

I think we need a couple more quarters of data to see where the entire Denver market is.  However, certain areas have definitely turned the corner and others are going to see a lot more declines.

Oct 22, 2008 05:23 AM
Annette Marshall
Your Castle Real Estate - Highlands Ranch, CO

As professionals we definitely need more information like this.  We need to be educated and keep our clients on top of what is going on in each local market.  Thanks for the great info, keep it up.

Oct 22, 2008 05:27 AM
Elizabeth Martinez
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO

As professionals we definitely need more information like this.  We need to be educated and keep our clients on top of what is going on in each local market.  Thanks for the great info, keep it up.

Oct 22, 2008 05:29 AM
Jesse Martinez
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO

Excellent information.  The data only confirms what we are seeing on the ground.   With information like this my investors and owner occupants can be more educated on making an informed decision.

Oct 22, 2008 05:33 AM
Sean Mathes
Your Castle Real Estate - Thornton, CO

Everyone benefits from information like this.  Investors, Realtors, Homeowners all need to have info like this, especially in rough times like the ones we are going through now. 

Oct 22, 2008 05:36 AM
Cody McCarthy
Your Castle Real Estate - Arvada, CO

Thanks for the overview.  Knowledge is power and we need to make sure our clients and peers are informed.  I can't wait to see the next version of this blog.  Our clients will continue to benefit from the great info you are posting.

Oct 22, 2008 05:39 AM
Jim McCarthy
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO

Can't wait to see what is happening in the 4Q of this year.  It seems that much of the map will stay the same.  It would be interesting to hear if any of these areas have it rock bottom.

Oct 22, 2008 05:42 AM
Nick McCoy
Your Castle Real Estate - Broomfield, CO

I have a question for other reader's of this blog.  Have any of you been experiencing bidding wars for homes that are priced under 150k?  I know that almost every offer that I submit under a 150000 will be asking price or above.  This is for investors and "retail" buyers.  From my point of view this market is very hot.  Just yesterday I had to submit an offer almost 40k over asking and I am not sure if we will get it or not.

Oct 22, 2008 05:44 AM
Ryan McCue
Your Castle Real Estate - Thornton, CO

I am also see tons of properties with multiple offers.  Just yesterday I walked into a house that went on the MLS that morning.  It was about 1 pm and the cleaning crew was just leaving the house.  One of the guys said that he just received a call from the listing agent that the house had been sold.  That happened in 5 hours!!!

Oct 22, 2008 05:48 AM
Stephanie Miller
Your Castle Real Estate - Littleton, CO

It all depends on the condition of the property.  There are a bunch of listings that have been on the market for a long time under 150000.  If they have been on for awhile they usually have major problems or the listing agent has not priced it right and will not budge on price.

Oct 22, 2008 05:51 AM
Brian Mills
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO

I agree with the previous bloggers.  The market is smoking right now for houses under 150k.  The trends map that your castle publishes helps push investors and retail buyers to areas of interest.  The properties under 150k and that are in the red areas are bought usually within 72 hours if the property is in decent condition.

Oct 22, 2008 05:55 AM
Caleb Mitchell
Your Castle Real Estate - Louisville, CO

It seems that even though some of these areas in green are still increasing in price that some areas will see price reductions with all of the things going on in the lending world.  Higher priced homes are probably going to be hit the hardest in upcoming months.

Oct 22, 2008 05:59 AM
Tera Moody
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO

The lending restrictions will definitely not help home sales of properties priced above 500k?  my listings that are over 500000 are not moving.  All of my properties under 200k are getting lots of showings and are still moving. 

Oct 22, 2008 06:01 AM
Ben Dorland
Porchlight Real Estate Group - Denver, CO

Qualified buyers are loving it right now.  If your buyers are FHA or have 20% to put down this is a great time to buy.  First time homebuyers can go into any of these areas and get a great deal.  My main problem is trying to find a "fixer" for a buyer that is not buying with all cash.

Oct 22, 2008 06:04 AM
Andrew Cepeda
Keller Williams Denver Central - Denver, CO
Real Estate Agent - 720.216.7617

Hi. Wow, that is great information. This is such an exciting time to be in real estate. I mean, it's hard but it's going to be one of those moments in history that we'll be able to refer to and say we survived it.

Nov 08, 2008 01:13 PM