Volume Rises First - Then Prices Follow

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner

I've been involved with Gwinnett County Real Estate for over 5 years now. One of the things I've always found interesting is that transaction volume rises or falls FIRST - then prices follow (even if slowly). Even when things are going well, you still see seasonal and cyclical changes in volume and pricing. The trend holds true in any market. In today's crazy market, it's critical to know what to look for in terms of the eventual recovery (and yes, it will ultimately recover!).

So, the answer is absolutely this "watch for increased closing volume".

This is an awesome chart. Thanks to 3 Oceans Real Estate for the chart. I wish I'd found it years ago because it really illustrates the reality of all real estate markets. Not only the Atlanta real estate market or the Gwinnett real estate market but any local real estate market anywhere in the country. Right now we're in either a Phase 5 or a Phase 6 market. That's bad news but it's good news too. Bad news, obviously, because prices are down and volume is flat. But, it's very good news because we're moving toward a strong Phase 1 market again - hopefully soon! That said, I honestly think a Phase 1 market is 2 years away - given what I'm seeing today. However, there's lots of money to be made buying real estate in this market. It sounds cliche, but Phase 6 markets are the ultimate time to buy. The smart money is buying real estate right now.

Note: "sides" means 1 side of a transaction (i.e. buyer side or seller side). So, sides=volume.

Real Estate Market Cycle
Real Estate Market Cycle

Comments (4)

Susie Blackmon
Ocala, FL
Ocala, Horses, Western Wear, Horse Farms, Marketing

Hey Matt, did you see Pat Kitano's post yesterday from the Chicago Tribune?  (Thanks for visiting my site this morning...)

Oct 07, 2008 10:54 PM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

This is an excellent graphic...  So many people don't understand how markets work.  And even when they do, "this time it is different." 

Oct 08, 2008 06:45 AM
Rick Frissell
HomeXpress Realty - Valrico, FL
aka "The Red Baron of Real Estate"

Matt,

Interesting post. Glad to see you have your finger on the pulse of our industry.

Rick

 

 

Oct 11, 2008 12:55 AM
Alexander- Slocum
Premiere Property Group, LLC - Vancouver Washington - Vancouver, WA
Realty Team- Vancouver WA Real Estate

Matt, thanks for sharing the graphic.  I've heard said that the real estate market around here peaked in July 2005.  I'm hoping that we'll be seeing a quicker move to the up-side than the 3+ year slide on the downside!  John

Oct 11, 2008 06:20 AM

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