The End of Google, Yahoo and MSN?
"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." George Hegel
It's 1978, Communications 101 at the University of Washington. The history of communication is all of one chapter in a very large text book. It begins with the first printing press, ends with network Television. The next big technology wave was the coax cable. I can still see my professor pacing the classroom with a two foot section of the flexible black rod, pointing it at us, bellowing "This is the future!" He looked like a nun about to rap our knuckles. But 30 years ago, it was the future, and he wanted to make a point: Think Outside the Box.
The Big Four. You think I'm talking about Google, Yahoo, MSN and what's its name. No, I'm going back in history to the beginning of the technological revolution to the four dominant radio networks. Here is where this history lesson starts.
The history of Radio is complicated but at one time there was NBC, ABC, CBS and the Mutual Broadcasting networks. They were huge in both audiences and cash flow. The Big Four fought it out over the airwaves, in court, and, of course, in advertising, until television took over in the 50's. However, the change to that new Box took decades.
In 1926, Philo T Farnsworth invented television in his small apartment, all the while, his wife complaining about the smell generated by the tubes. She may have been the first one to say "Television Stinks." His grandson is a friend of mine so I like to give Philo some credit. The first 60 line image transmitted was a dollar sign, not Philo's wife. 
This is not his wife. I inserted this picture to keep your interest. TV debuted in the United States at the 1939 New York World's Fair. It wasn't until after WW II that the economics of television made sense.
As we race through history, The Big Four Radio Networks became the Big Three in television. Even though the Mutual radio network created some of the most formidable radio shows that later became TV shows, it never became a TV network. As the radio networks fizzled, dozens of smaller radio networks and independents were created. The Box was changing.
In the mid 50s, Network TV was sizzling as radio cooled. The Big Three TV Networks had a "License to Print Money." (A quote from a friend's dad who ran a large corporation while his wife's family owned several TV stations.) It was true. The three networks were the only game in town until the mid 80's.
Network TV changed at the 1986 National Association of Broadcasters convention in San Francisco. I was there, promoting a Gardening show (I'm always a little ahead of my time.) Several blocks down the street, and way off the convention floor, at the elegant Saint Francis hotel was a party launching a new television network: FOX.
The party was packed and the programming was questionable. Everything and everybody was negative about this new start up. FOX promoted the Joan Rivers show. They had the Tracey Ullman show which had a short animated sketch called The Simpson's. Married with Children, and A Current Affair seemed odd against the Big Three favorites such as The Cosby Show, Family Ties, Dallas and Cheers. But, of course, these and other FOX shows would change communications history; change the Box.
At the party, most of the FOX executives used some kind of gel to slick their hair back and I remember thinking they all looked like car salesmen. But the food and drinks were good and I walked away confident my show had a much better chance than this new network. Twenty years later this start up network became a power house. In the 2007-08 season, Fox became the most popular network in America.
But, back to my point, the big change came in the 80's as more and more targeted networks challenged convention, challenged the Box. Slowly, CNN, MTV, ESPN, Nickelodeon, HGTV, etc. captured more and more of the Big Three's audience.
Remember history. There was a time when there were no cable networks. I still see that coax cable pointed in my direction. So, history repeats itself. Radio became TV and now TV becomes the Internet. All had dominate players that shrank, as the economics and media transformed, into other entities.
Google, Yahoo and MSN are called the Big Three search engines today but really they are the Big Three networks (portals.) As ABC, NBC and CBS were in the 50's to the 80's, Google, MSN, and Yahoo are the networks of today. It seems obvious when you see these Big Three in a historical perspective, they will go the way of the radio and TV networks.
Today it seems these Big Three struggle to find themselves. I feel like Google is more interested in selling me something than getting me to the right web site. Tomorrow, established and new search engines will become more accepted and useful for view/users to access the internet, the new Box.
In the future, we will look back on the Big Three like we look back on the Big Three TV Networks and before that the Big Four Radio Networks. Perhaps it will take a perceptual or paradigm shift. Or just a new generation; a new wave.
The New History Book: When the new wave thinks rock and roll, they now go outside the Box to MTV.com to search... instead of Yahooing, Goggling, or just feeling lucky.
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