Last week I wrote about the August pending contracts resale numbers. They were up year over year and month over month, with standing inventory going down to 10.1 months.
Well, NAR published the September numbers this morning. Go to http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auh3iRzkjrUw&refer=home. September resales are up year over year and month over month. More importantly, Resale inventory numbers went down to 9.9 months. The percentage of resales that were REO or foreclosures was about a third of the total. Remember, we are trying to work down to about six months of resale inventory.
In my mind (an often scary place), it seems that we are seeing a market trend. Remember that what we see in the news is always a trailing indicator. However, since we have been in a bear market for about two and one half years (downward curves in both sales numbers and home prices), it seems like we should be seeing some absorbtion of lower priced homes. A recession won't help us, but the early signs of a "recovery" in residential resales should be fully apparent by the middle of next year.
That is my story, and I am sticking to it. When you get those contracts, send them to me for closing! :-)
Have a great weekend.
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