Is this a good time to buy Aspen/Snowmass real estate? How is Aspen's real estate market compared to the rest of the country? The real estate market started to decline in Aspen about 12 months ago. Since then we have seen a 28% decline in our number of transactions and a 41% in the total sales volume from the previous 12 months. In addition, the average price and the median price of a property sale in the past 12 months are 18.7% and 41.6%, respectively. They are below the average and median price of a sale in the previous 12 months. These statistics do not mean that Aspen's real estate prices have dropped dramatically. Although the total number of transactions has declined by 28%, the number of sales over $10,000,000 has declined by 61%. The decline in sales over $10 million has brought the average sales price down but that does not mean that the prices in Aspen have dropped.
There are two reasons why a significant decline in Aspen's real estate is unlikely. The first reason being, 61% of the real estate purchased in Aspen in the past 12 months was bought without financing. Aspen is a highly un-leveraged real estate market and is not subject to the forces that are visible in other markets around the country. The second reason being location. Aspen is rated as one of the most desirable resort spots in the world.
We are seeing the inventory of properties in Aspen and Snowmass start to decline also. At the beginning of September we had about 463 homes and condos in Aspen and 197 in Snowmass that were for sale. Today we are seeing 419 in Aspen and 164 in Snowmass. This modest decline is, for the most part, expired listings or properties being withdrawn from the market rather than sales, but a decline in inventory is one of the first signs that our real estate is beginning to recover.
It's very difficult to pinpoint the bottom in our market but there is growing evidence that we may very well have bottomed out here in Aspen/Snowmass. In the last 33 years, Aspen has only experienced six years, including this one where the average real estate sales price has declined from the previous year per the Aspen Board of Realtors. Aspen has never seen a deline that has lasted for more than one year. Following every year that real estate prices has declined, the average sales price has increased by about 27%.
So, is this a good year to buy real estate in Aspen/Snowmass, Colorado? It's hard to be certain but if history is any prediction of the future, this may be the best opportunity to buy Aspen/Snowmass real estate that we have in the last 33 years.
Thanks to Bill Small for providing these statistics and for the opportunity to share them with the rest of the country.
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