What's Really Happening in the Hawaii
Real Estate Market
4/7/07
Oahu Single Family Homes
As you can see from the above graph Oahu SFH inventory for sale dropped by -3% for the Month of March. Sales in March were 324 homes, dramatically up from Feb. Sales of 264. That's a +19% Increase in homes sold. The Days On Market (D.O.M.) for the Sold Homes was 82 Days.
The ‘Standard' now for all Oahu Towns and Neighborhoods is 25% of the total inventory for sale is ‘Just Accepted Offers' (ACS). So the Oahu Map above shows the %'s of various towns around the Island. For a more detailed report for any of the towns or neighborhoods
email me at Mikeg@hawaii.rr.com
There is a large disparity between Avg. list price of $1,088,799 and avg. sold price of $786,394. What this is telling us is that the Larger Part of the Inventory For Sale is Higher Priced while the majority of sales are occurring in the Under $1million range.
Surprisingly, you might want to ‘wish' that the SFH prices are coming down, however from the above graph you can see that a year ago the Avg. sold price was $650,000 and today it is $643,500. Not much relief there.
However...it is a relief to see lower median priced new listings coming onto the Market!
The number of homes sold will continue to rise throughout the Summer Months until we get into the Fall. Most folks who want a ‘piece of Hawaii' will purchase during this time. There will also be a slight ‘bump' up in homes for sale prices during this period as sellers are more apt to get a higher price, especially true with a relatively ‘tight inventory.'
D.O.M. has dramatically increased in the past 12 months and will remain so.
Please keep in mind Condos...they are becoming a way of life, a preferred lifestyle. We will continue to see a shift from SFH Sales to Condos for the foreseeable future.
Oahu Condos and Town Homes
From the above graph we can see that Inventory over all really hasn't increased in March. Average For Sale Price is at $425,531 and Avg. sold Price is $375,898. D.O.M. 71 Days. Current inventory for sale is 2,234.
The % of Inventory For Sale with Just Accepted Offers (ACS) is a ‘healthy' 27%. Last year this number ran around 18%.
There should no doubt that for sale inventory should rise.
From the graph above you can see that although there were -22% fewer solds this month vs. a year ago the number of sold for March was 541 Condos and is a good number of sales and on the rise.
Although there is ‘some' inventory For Sale out there slightly below $300,000 the overall trend seems to be that most purchases are now in a higher price range as I see Investors wanting to buy more amenities and upgrades. The rising sold price is probably also reflected by Sellers wanting to ‘Trade Up' into better units. However there seems to be a ‘Cap' to the price most Buyers want to pay and the Majority of Sales are at $321,000 vs. the median list price of Condos being at $350,000.
Now here is Something Interesting...
From the above graph we can see a ‘dramatic' drop in D.O.M. in the past 30 Days of -32%. Just as a comparison...
I suspect we will continue to see a slight rise in the median for sale price of new listings coming onto the Market. A year ago this median was $344,500 today it is $350,000.
Condo for sale inventory will be on the rise.
Apparently the median price sold of Condos is not following the rising trend in SFH's. Remember the norm in SFH's For Sale is that higher priced listings for sale mis-sku this data because of the enormity of the Asking Prices.
In Closing...
Although I would like to say that I personally would not recommend Buying a SFH in Today's Market as we all are concerned about The War, The Economy, The Lack of Jobs, The Stock Market, The Rising Hawaii Taxes, The Sewer Lines rising costs to us, etc., and this ‘should' effect the price of Homes...it may be ‘Wishful Thinking' here in Hawaii.
Unlike the Mainland Markets where we are all aware of Doom and Gloom forecasts and happenings...especially if you follow the contributors to Craig's List Housing Forums, this isn't the Mainland! Darn. Or...Maybe it's a Good Thing?!
I ‘Wish' I could say SFH prices are going to go down. The most I can say right now is that they are ‘moderating.' Truthfully, if you just work with the data we have on hand right now Downward Home Prices are NOT in the cards.
What I mostly base this assumption on are the facts:
The (ACS) % last year for SFH's was running around 18%. Today it is at 25%. That is from two parts, Lower Available Inventory (when we all thought it was going rise dramatically) and Rising Demand. Although the #'s sold do not match the Highs of Last year or the year before...Demand is strong for Hawaii Homes. Interest Rates are good and they too are not going to rise. Rising Interest Rates are just not going to happen unless the Folks in Washington want to see the Economy go into a Recession.
‘The American Dream' of owning a Home still goes on....
If you are going to buy a SFH, do it. I think you can still Negotiate as it is a Buyer's Market and from what I have seen there is still a lot of inventory out there For Sale that is unrealistically Priced.
As for Condos I think the best values are out there waiting for you. You may want to look at price ranges of $280,000 to $330,000 for your BEST Investment in terms of Price Value, Price Appreciation, Rental Potential and Positive Cash Flow.
Opportunities abound if you are looking for an Up-Scale Condo or Town Home as well. Of course many carry a larger price tag, but who wouldn't want to have the ability to trade up into a Newer Condo/Town Home with greater appeal for Re-Sellers and new buyers?
Since the average price for Condos is just over a little over $300,000 I believe there is plenty of room for negotiation in some Neighborhoods especially in the higher end.
I cannot close this Article without mentioning...
Mike's Hot Button
I am of the opinion now that I will go forward being more...moderate in my views and opinions, especially of my ‘Fellow Realtors.' (As they may from time to time want to shoot me.)
But...here are my "Words of Advice" about Real Estate Agents and Brokerages here in Hawaii....
There are plenty of Good, Honest, Hard Working Agents and Brokerages out there to work with regardless whether you are Buying or Selling.
Ask for an Agent's Sales Report. Look and see what they have sold...or not sold.
Do not ask "How many years have you been in the Business?" It doesn't matter. It only matters how much experience they have and that comes from number of Transactions and at what Price Points.
There were 231 Expired and Withdrawn Listings for Single Family Homes in March. Consider the Total solds were 330.
Out of 231 Expired and Withdrawn Listings there were 46 of them with no photos of your property for sale.
Come on now! That's 20% of Agents with Listings For Sale who did not put photos in of the property they are charged to sell into the MLS.
This is a $875,000 For Sale Listing with No Photo that was For Sale for 108 days. Now consider just in March there were 46 of these or 20% of all the Expired and Withdrawn Listings. Gee I wonder why they didn't sell...
http://www.hawaiirealestatestatistics.com/
808-384-9015 Cell
With Much Aloha,
Mike Gallagher Realtor/Broker
RE/Max Kai Lani
If your property is listed, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other Brokers. We will cooperate fully. This publication is neither endorsed by RE/Max or RE/Max Kai Lani. The opinions and information are only those opinions of the author. Statistics are from the Honolulu Board of Realtors. All material is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Any copying or distribution of this material herein is STRICTLY UNAUTHORIZED without express written permission from the Author.
Comments(3)