The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo says that the demand for homes - number of pending deals set within the past month - dropped by 210 homes in the past 2 weeks to 2,463 but it's still +98% vs. 1,241 a year ago (or 2,011 at this time in 2006.)
Inventory in the past 2 weeks, increased by 68 homes to 12,790 vs. 17,454 a year ago and 15,253 at this time 2 years ago. Thomas writes: "Make no mistake, values are not going to be appreciating from now until (spring) and they will not be appreciating anytime next year as well."
Thomas calculates a "market time" benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic it would take 5.19 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 4.76 months two weeks vs. 14.06 months a year ago vs. 7.41 two years ago.
Homes selling for under a million bucks have a market time of 4.40 months vs. 19.39 months for homes listed for more than $1 million. Here's the data, as of last Thursday, for listings, deals pending, and market time in months vs. 2 weeks ago and a year ago ....
SLICE | Listings | Pending | Time (mos.) | 2 wks. ago | 1 yr. ago |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
•$0-$500k | 6,450 | 1736 | 3.72 | 3.43 | 12.78 |
•$500k-$750k | 2,458 | 456 | 5.39 | 4.83 | 15.11 |
•$750k-$1m | 1,364 | 140 | 9.74 | 8.27 | 12.74 |
•$1m-$1.5m | 1,004 | 81 | 12.40 | 11.11 | 15.02 |
•$1.5m-$2m | 599 | 24 | 24.96 | 21.89 | 18.20 |
•$2m-4m | 724 | 26 | 27.85 | 22.42 | 17.76 |
•$4m+ | 349 | 7 | 49.86 | 34.30 | 17.50 |
All O.C. | 12,790 | 2,463 | 5.19 | 4.76 | 14.06 |
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