In an effort to bring
you more from the governance side of the NAR
Conference & Expo,
I attended a very entertaining session featuring the host of Morning
Joe on MSNBC Joe Scarborough and columnist &
commentator Mike
Barnicle titled 'Election
Results and the 111th Congress: Legislative & Political Forum.'
You can
view my other NAR Updates here:
NAR - Land Use, Property Rights & Environment Committee
NAR - Regulatory Issues Forum
NAR - Land Use, Property Rights & Environment Committee
NAR - Regulatory Issues Forum
As
stated before, this will not be an exhaustive reporting of the forum
but a highlight of their views, some entertaining quotes and my
commentary.
The first topic of discussion was Sarah Palin. The consensus from those that have met her, interviewed her and spent any amount of time with her is that she is HOT. Whether you like her or not, she is HOT. Politically correct or not, she is HOT. And according to Scarborough, you can call her whatever you want but in 6 months you'll be calling her Senator as she is a virtual lead-pipe cinch to replace the disgraced Ted Stevens. From that position, she will have 4 - 8 years to build her resume and bona-fides and may well be positioned to become the nations first female President.
They further discounted any negative impact Palin had on the McCain candidacy saying unequivocally that John McCain ran the most ineffective, directionless, message-less campaign in recent memory. Obama, on the other hand, ran a disciplined, well organized and well-funded campaign. He is a skilled orator, an unashamed intellectual and a media darling. That he could harness the media with such great success first against Hillary and then against McCain is a tribute to his skillful manipulation.
His most questionable decision to date was his selection of Joe Biden as a running mate. First because it's a dead end since it grooms no successor to the Presidency in 8 years, and secondly because Biden himself brings plenty negatives to the ticket. Both men have known Biden for 30+ years and profess to love him dearly, but they liken Biden to 'an out of control beer truck.' You just know there's going to be an accident watching this truck careening down the street, beer bottles flying off in all directions like bottle rockets, exploding on the pavement, scattering debris and passers-by in it's wake - but you just can't turn away - it's just too much fun to watch. There are already pools being formed in DC on how soon calls will start coming in for Bidens resignation with some wags betting as early as Washingtons birthday.
They also cautioned that this election was not a mandate election but a wave. Given the various scandals involving Republicans during the past few years, the perception that they abandoned their conservative principles and the growing unpopularity of George Bush, this year represented a wave of resentment, a wave of change that was going to sweep Republicans from power almost regardless of who the Democratic candidate was. The true race was not between Obama & McCain but between Obama & Hillary. McCain had an early opportunity to make it a horse race but squandered virtually every opportunity.
However, it should be noted this country is still a slightly right-of-center democracy. That translates to Obama not having nearly the freedom to do all he promised. The times will force him to be much more pragmatic in his approach and the result may be nearly indistinguishable from what a McCain Presidency would have looked like. They predict that Obama's biggest battles will not be with Republicans but with Nancy Pelosi, to establish primacy in the Democratic party and to keep the agenda from veering too sharply to the left. According to Scarborough, the best thing that could have happened to revitalize the Republican Party just happened.
Both men decried the bias evidenced by the media. They noted the differences between those that portray themselves as commentators and columnists with an obvious agenda, and the 'hard news' press whose job it is to report the news without bias and without comment. Noting that they doubted that McCain picked up a single vote from any reporter at the three major networks, NY Times, Washington Post, LA Times or Chicago Tribune, they don't have a problem with that but said it is not the job of those same people to be on-air cheerleaders, as they obviously were in some cases. There should remain a separation between those 3rd and 4th estates and that line was significantly blurred this election cycle and that integrity and trust were the victims.
Bottom line -
The first topic of discussion was Sarah Palin. The consensus from those that have met her, interviewed her and spent any amount of time with her is that she is HOT. Whether you like her or not, she is HOT. Politically correct or not, she is HOT. And according to Scarborough, you can call her whatever you want but in 6 months you'll be calling her Senator as she is a virtual lead-pipe cinch to replace the disgraced Ted Stevens. From that position, she will have 4 - 8 years to build her resume and bona-fides and may well be positioned to become the nations first female President.
They further discounted any negative impact Palin had on the McCain candidacy saying unequivocally that John McCain ran the most ineffective, directionless, message-less campaign in recent memory. Obama, on the other hand, ran a disciplined, well organized and well-funded campaign. He is a skilled orator, an unashamed intellectual and a media darling. That he could harness the media with such great success first against Hillary and then against McCain is a tribute to his skillful manipulation.
His most questionable decision to date was his selection of Joe Biden as a running mate. First because it's a dead end since it grooms no successor to the Presidency in 8 years, and secondly because Biden himself brings plenty negatives to the ticket. Both men have known Biden for 30+ years and profess to love him dearly, but they liken Biden to 'an out of control beer truck.' You just know there's going to be an accident watching this truck careening down the street, beer bottles flying off in all directions like bottle rockets, exploding on the pavement, scattering debris and passers-by in it's wake - but you just can't turn away - it's just too much fun to watch. There are already pools being formed in DC on how soon calls will start coming in for Bidens resignation with some wags betting as early as Washingtons birthday.
They also cautioned that this election was not a mandate election but a wave. Given the various scandals involving Republicans during the past few years, the perception that they abandoned their conservative principles and the growing unpopularity of George Bush, this year represented a wave of resentment, a wave of change that was going to sweep Republicans from power almost regardless of who the Democratic candidate was. The true race was not between Obama & McCain but between Obama & Hillary. McCain had an early opportunity to make it a horse race but squandered virtually every opportunity.
However, it should be noted this country is still a slightly right-of-center democracy. That translates to Obama not having nearly the freedom to do all he promised. The times will force him to be much more pragmatic in his approach and the result may be nearly indistinguishable from what a McCain Presidency would have looked like. They predict that Obama's biggest battles will not be with Republicans but with Nancy Pelosi, to establish primacy in the Democratic party and to keep the agenda from veering too sharply to the left. According to Scarborough, the best thing that could have happened to revitalize the Republican Party just happened.
Both men decried the bias evidenced by the media. They noted the differences between those that portray themselves as commentators and columnists with an obvious agenda, and the 'hard news' press whose job it is to report the news without bias and without comment. Noting that they doubted that McCain picked up a single vote from any reporter at the three major networks, NY Times, Washington Post, LA Times or Chicago Tribune, they don't have a problem with that but said it is not the job of those same people to be on-air cheerleaders, as they obviously were in some cases. There should remain a separation between those 3rd and 4th estates and that line was significantly blurred this election cycle and that integrity and trust were the victims.
Bottom line -
- Palin is much brighter than people give her credit for, she will remain on the scene and may play a significant role in the future (and she is HOT). Contrary to her Couric image, she is a voracious reader, a hand-on leader and a capable economist. She has some fences to mend in Alaska but will remain effective if she chooses to remain there but few are betting that will be her choice.
- Biden is a helluva nice guy but not as bright as people give him credit for. Despite spending 36+ years in Washington, he is one of about 5 people in the legislature who is not at least a millionaire. That's both a positive and a negative. After his initial remarks about Obama being the first well-dressed, clean, well-spoken black guy to run for major office, it is a miracle he was even in the running for VP, let alone the final pick.
- McCain is also a helluva nice guy who, had he run the same campaign this year as he did in 2000 may well have won. According to Scarborough, he was set to name Joe Lieberman as his VP choice but the conservative wing of the party threatened open revolt. In a fit of pique, he passed on their suggestions of Tim Pawlenty and Tom Ridge, and discounted Mitt Romney because 'he hates his guts'. Palin was essentially pulled out of a hat as she had many of the grass-roots virtues of the conservative base with no Washington baggage. His Senate office is often in messy disarray and that was much in evidence in how he waged this campaign.
- Obama is a bit of an unknown with a very short time on the national stage. We will know more about him based on his selections for key positions and for his enumeration of priorities during his first 100 days. The prospect of a young family with a puppy in the White House is very attractive but if he wants his place in history to be marked as being a great President instead of just the first African-American President, he has his work cut out for him.
In closing, only in America could we go through nearly 2 years of a bruising, battering, name calling, self-aggrandizing campaign, see our economy drop to the brink of disaster, watch our housing market disolve, our stock market collapse, our fuel prices skyrocket, our politicians and bankers pocket billions of our dollars and still wake up November 5th with optimism and hope for the future. This is truly a great country.
On that we'll all agree.
Gene
Wunderlich - Selling Southwest California Homes including
Temecula, Murrieta & The Southern California Wine Country
' NAR - Election Results
from Scarborough & Barnicle'
THE
OPINIONS IN THIS
COMMENTARY ARE STRICTLY GENE WUNDERLICH's PERSONAL OPINION. WHILE ANY
REASONABLE &/or RATIONAL PERSON SHOULD AGREE, THESE VIEWS MAY
NOT
REFLECT THOSE OF ACTIVERAIN, COLDWELL BANKER RESIDENTIAL BROKERAGE OR
ANY LOCAL, STATE OR NATIONAL ASSOCIATIONS.
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