So if you go to realquest.com you can type in a zip code or city - and find the number of "Notices of Default", Notices of Trustee Sales" and REOs". So I did that for 6 cities or a combination of cities, coming up with a total of NODs, NOTs & REOs.
Next I found the current populations of those cities and divided that number by 4 (guessing a family of 4 - average per house). Next I divided the 1/4 population by the foreclosure total - coming up with ranges of 10 to 15%. Did I do that right? The percentages seems very high - and this is NOT total REOS, etc. just what is in the pipeline now - or at least that is what I think I have.
I have been watching REOs, etc to the number of active listings and find that shocking also, for it seems that there are so many more foreclosures coming to an MLS near me (or maybe you).
As an appraiser I find almost all the sales in my area in Southern California are of REO homes; most homes headed to default are never even listed "for sale" prior to the foreclosure.
If the flood of forelosurers continues - our home prices might settle at 25% of prior prices from the summer of 2006. A $400,000 house selling for $100,000 - is that a crazy buyers market or what? Now in all honesty that $400,000 price tag from 2.5 years ago was not a realistic price (based on average area family income), but I guess the lenders planned to rely on appreciation and make up for risk with volume. O' ya that didn't work so well - did it...
For all you non-California agents - tell you clients who have always wanted to live in California - our home prices are finally "affordable" You can now buy most 1800 to 2000 square foot houses (most under 20 years old) in Moreno Valley for under $200,000.
Beverly A. Bayer, SRA