It's time to take a close up look at the South Wales subdivision in Jeffersonton in northwest Culpeper County.
There are currently 18 homes for sale here. The low price is $450,000 and the highest priced is $599,900. The days on market ranges from just under two weeks to well over two years.
During the last year 10 properties sold. That means that at current sales rates there is enough inventory to last almost two years. If you put your home on the market today and everything currently on the market had to sell before yours did you could plan on selling yours in early spring of 2009!
The lowest price anything sold for in the last year in this subdivision was $375,000. The highest price anything sold for was $635,000. On average the sales price, including incentives was 97% of the final list price. The fastest anything sold was in 9 days. The longest anything was on the market (and sold) was 277 days.
Twelve homes over the course of the past year have either been withdrawn from the market or the listing has expired. None of those homes have yet been sold. That means in addition to the 18 currently on the market there are 12 more owners who want to sell.
One more factor that doesn't show up in any statistics is the talk about Dominion's proposed new power lines. Since they would follow the current right of way through South Wales there is some uncertainty about what will happen regarding this proposal and what the ultimate effect will be on the homes here. Uncertainty in an already slow market has a tendency to make buyers move on. While we can't measure this effect, it could be impacting home sales here to some extent.
What should you expect if you live in South Wales? You should expect price reductions! If everyone who wanted to sell had their house currently on the market there would be three years worth of inventory. While spring and summer is typically peak buying season, there are nowhere near enough buyers out there to absorb this kind of inventory.
Again, if you don't have to sell, your home should not be on the market in these conditions. If you do have to sell, you will need to make sure your home is in great condition and will have to price it aggressively.
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