What Are the Real Trends in Home Value

By
Mortgage and Lending with Canopy Mortgage, LLC NMLS 124492

No matter what your role in the real estate industry, understanding trends in home values is absolutely critical. With a shortage of active credit facilities and historic-low appetite for mortgage-backed securities, one must be able to decipher and interpret the data that drives lenders acceptance of residential real estate as collateral.

Although the Case-Schiller Home Price Index, National Association of Realtors® Existing-Home Sales and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index get the majority of the media attention, they all have limitations on the accuracy of their reports due to the process of measuring their data sets.

It was recently brought to my attention that lenders look at a different index to gauge mortgage risk relative to loan performance and collateral assessment. It is called the LoanPerformance National Home Price Index and is a product facilitated by First American CoreLogic, Inc. which is "the nation's largest provider of real estate, mortgage, collateral management, and fraud detection information and analytical products."

LoanPerformance HPI

Because I do not have subscription access to the raw data, I am only able to pass on the trends per state level. Needles to say, home value trends can be focused to a single zip code. Here is the most recent data available for the chart referenced above from the lowest appreaciating market to the highest appreciating market.

  1. California -29.85%
  2. Nevada -24.99%
  3. Arizona -21.09%
  4. Florida -17.54%
  5. Rhode Island -14.96%
  6. Hawaii -14.30%
  7. United States -11.24%
  8. Minnesota -9.71%
  9. Wyoming -8.92%
  10. Washington -8.80%
  11. Michigan -8.01%
  12. New Hampshire -7.52%
  13. Maryland -7.39%
  14. Illinois -6.93%
  15. Oregon -6.44%
  16. New Jersey -6.21%
  17. District of Columbia -6.12%
  18. Virginia -6.08%
  19. Connecticut -5.92%
  20. Massachusetts -5.85%
  21. Ohio -5.38%
  22. New York -5.24%
  23. Alabama -4.88%
  24. Georgia -4.87%
  25. Wisconsin -3.75%
  26. Pennsylvania -3.65%
  27. Colorado -3.39%
  28. Tennessee -2.75%
  29. Louisiana -1.45%
  30. Nebraska -1.44%
  31. South Carolina -1.23%
  32. Delaware -1.20%
  33. Alaska -0.90%
  34. Kentucky -0.87%
  35. North Carolina -0.73%
  36. Idaho -0.35%
  37. Utah 0.00%
  38. North Dakota +0.43%
  39. Oklahoma +0.61%
  40. Arkansas +0.62%
  41. New Mexico +0.72%
  42. Vermont +0.76%
  43. Maine +0.79%
  44. Iowa +0.92%
  45. Missouri +1.12%
  46. Kansas +1.38%
  47. Montana +1.48%
  48. Indiana +1.98%
  49. Mississippi +2.14%
  50. South Dakota +2.17%
  51. Texas +2.61%
  52. West Virginia +4.60%

ALL real estate professionals know that home values are local phenomenons. No one can dispute that within any given locale there will be declining markets, stagnant markets and appreciating markets.

Understanding real home value trends per the lenders perspective can only provide timely guidance not only to you, but also consumers.

 

Source: First American CoreLogic - LoanPerformance HPI

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Rainmaker
388,669
John Walters
Frank Rubi Real Estate - Slidell, LA
Licensed in Louisiana

James good info.  I have always said and thought it was mostly the "boom" area that are feeling the most pain.

Dec 03, 2008 09:03 AM #1
Rainmaker
131,694
Michele Reneau
Certified Staging Professional (CSP) Elite Instructor - Summerville, SC
Realtor, GRI ~ Charleston, SC Relocation Experts Team

The good news is that real trend in home values is increase over the long haul! ;) and that's what people need to know.  This chart shows that it is a great time to purchase in most areas. Interesting info that lenders are using on extending credit to whom and where.  Thanks for sharing!

Dec 03, 2008 12:25 PM #2
Rainer
70,975
James K Barath, CMPS
Canopy Mortgage, LLC - Crown Point, IN
FICO Pro, Certified Military Housing Specialist

John,

The top 4 obviously gets the most attention. It is number 5 & 6 that surprised me as declining markets. On the flip side, I was humbled by the fact that West Virginia leads the nation in home appreciation relative to loan performance.

Dec 03, 2008 02:57 PM #3
Rainer
70,975
James K Barath, CMPS
Canopy Mortgage, LLC - Crown Point, IN
FICO Pro, Certified Military Housing Specialist

Michele,

You are absolutely correct. Over the long-term, home values will increase. Will they increase at the rapid pace of the past decade? Maybe not. Regardless, a home's value goes well beyond the investment not only in function, but also the sentimental value.

Dec 03, 2008 03:12 PM #4
Rainmaker
70,880
Mobile Austin Notary
Apostille/Authentication/Embassy Legalization, Notary Public, Loan Signing Agent & Process Server Services - Austin, TX
www.mobileaustinnotary.com

Thanks for the great information.Butterfly

Dec 03, 2008 03:29 PM #5
Rainer
70,975
James K Barath, CMPS
Canopy Mortgage, LLC - Crown Point, IN
FICO Pro, Certified Military Housing Specialist

Jenette,

If you like the content of this blog, please visit my outside blog located at http://myCMPS.wordpress.com and subscribe through one of the web aggregators. Thanks, James

Dec 03, 2008 03:32 PM #6
Rainmaker
400,678
John Cannata
214-728-0449 http://TexasLoanGuy.com - Frisco, TX
Texas Home Mortgage - Purchase or Refinance

Good stuff James.  I like that Texas is positive, but its a shame that the negative number runs all the way to # 37.

Dec 04, 2008 02:40 AM #7
Rainer
70,975
James K Barath, CMPS
Canopy Mortgage, LLC - Crown Point, IN
FICO Pro, Certified Military Housing Specialist

John,

You must remember that these numbers represent state-wide averages. As you know, Flower Mound, Plano and Frisco to name a few have had closer to 5%-7% appreciation rates for the past year.

Dec 04, 2008 02:48 AM #8
Rainmaker
400,678
John Cannata
214-728-0449 http://TexasLoanGuy.com - Frisco, TX
Texas Home Mortgage - Purchase or Refinance

Oh I know it.  I have mentioned that several times to people I speak with about our economy.

Dec 04, 2008 03:16 AM #9
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Rainer
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James K Barath, CMPS

FICO Pro, Certified Military Housing Specialist
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