Merrimack Valley Market Trends Through November 2008

It Appears Some Towns Have Reached the Bottom

The number of Active Single Family Listings throughout the Merrimack Valley has declined slightly over the past month (except for Tyngsborough and Lawrence where the number of active listings has remained unchanged when compared to this time last month).  However, the Average Days on Market (DOM) has increased in numerous towns. Declining inventory levels are a good sign, and as we near a balanced supply more towns should begin to see values stabilize. The number of transactions typically slow during the holiday season, so expect the DOM to continue to rise.

Single Family Market Data (as of December 4, 2008)

Andover:  102 Active Listings ranging from $230,000 to $3,075,000 with an average list price of $719,625. Average DOM 184.9 (up from 168). There are another 22 properties Under Agreement, and these properties had an average DOM of 119. The Average and Median Sales Prices increased slightly for the second straight month.

Billerica:  126 Active Listings ranging from $130,000 to $899,900 with an average list price of $380,505. Average DOM=209 (up from (187). There are another 26 properties Under Agreement, and these properties had an average DOM of 132.5. The average and median sales prices saw a slight drop for the second straight month; however, the average and median sales prices have remained relatively stable since March.  This could be a sign the bottom of the Billerica Single Family Market has been reached.

Chelmsford: 111 Active Listings ranging from $99,000 to $945,000 with and average list price of $418,602. Average DOM=138.9 (down from 147.6). There are another 15 properties Under Agreement, and these properties had an average DOM of 77. The average sale price dropped slightly for the fourth straight month while the median sales price increased slightly. Values in the lower half of the market have remained fairly stable while values in the upper half of the Chelmsford market remain soft. (the October numbers listed in the chart below does not include a sale of a $1,475,000 property which skews the numbers)

Dracut: 103 Active Listings ranging from $155,000 to $869,000 with an average list price of $346,828. Average DOM=171 (174.5 last month). There are another 41 properties Under Agreement, and these properties had an average DOM of 164. For the third straight month, the average and median sales prices have increased slightly. It appears the bottom of the Dracut single family market has been reached.

Lawrence:  92 Active Listings ranging from $39,900 to $370,000 with an average list price of $183,646. Average DOM=162.2 (up from 156.9). There are another 43 properties Under Agreement, and these properties had an average DOM of 117. While Foreclosures and Short Sales continue to dominate the landscape in Lawrence, the current number of active listings (92) represents a 5.9 month supply which is a balanced supply. The average and median sales prices have remained relatively stable since April which indicates the Lawrence Single Family Market most likely has reached its bottom.

Lowell: 234 Active Listings ranging from $59,900 to $1,100,000 with an average list price of $229,230. Average DOM=158.9 (156.5 last month). There are another 67 properties Under Agreement and these properties had an average DOM of 153.  Similar to Lawrence, the Lowell Single Family Market has numerous Foreclosures and potential Short Sale Listings.  The average and median sales prices decreased slightly, and are nearing the year to date lows we saw in July. There continues to be an over supply of homes for sale (currently an 8 month supply). Again, this market may be near its bottom but the over supply of inventory (especially during the winter months) is cause for concern and could lead to further decreases in sales prices as long as inventory levels remain above a 6 month supply.

Methuen: 179 Active Listings (down significantly from 205 last month) ranging from $76,950 to $899,995 with and average list price of $337,570. Average DOM=162.9 (up from148). There are another 35 properties Under Agreement and these properties had an average DOM of 139.0.  While the average sale price has remained relatively stable over the past four months, the median sales price declined slightly for the second straight month. The current inventory level, 6.75 month supply, is nearing a balance supply. As evident in the declining median sales price, the lower half of the Dracut market continues to see more activity than the upper half. The declining inventory is a good sign, and could lead to a stabilization of values if the trend continues.

Tewksbury: 80 Active Listings ranging from $145,000 to $899,000 with an average list price of $389,372. Average DOM=171.8 (169.3 last month). There are another 15 properties Under Agreement and these properties had an average DOM of 90.7. While the average and median sales prices have been stable over the past four months, the number of sales per month has declined over the same time period.  This, along with the current 6.9 month supply are causes for concern as values could decline if these trends continue over the next few months.

Tyngsborough: 59 Active Listings ranging from $139,900 to $950,000 with an average list price of $426,659 Average DOM=207.4 (up from 192). There are another 11 properties Under Agreement and these properties had an average DOM of 88.  The Tyngsborough single family market continues to lag behind its neighboring communities, and the 59 active listings represent an 8.4 month inventory which is a large over-supply. While there are a number of well maintained properties available, expect the sales prices to continue to gradually decline due to the large over supply of inventory. Buyers continue to have the upper hand in negotiations, and some owners have turned to the rental arena in lieu of selling their property. The typical monthly rent ranges from $1800 to $2500.

Westford: 97 Active listings ranging from $150,000 to $964,001 with an average list price of $497,765. Average DOM=184.45 (up from 165.5). There are another 8 properties Under Agreement and these properties had an average DOM of 170.  While the average and median sales prices have been relatively stable since August, there continues to be an over-supply (currently 7.9 months).

With only Andover (5 month), Billerica (5.4 month), Chelmsford (5.4 month), and Lawrence (5.9 month) having single family inventory levels less than 6 months (a 5-6 month supply is considered normal and balanced), Buyers continue to have plenty of properties to choose from. The number of transactions in most cities and towns has remained stable over the past few months, and inventory levels in most areas are continuing to decline.  This remains an excellent market for first time buyers, seasoned investors looking to add to their portfolios, new investors looking to build their portfolios, and those with equity in their current home who are looking to upsize or downsize.