4.5% Just A Dream???

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Mortgage and Lending

Last week everyone was a buzz with excitement.  The Treasury announced they would step up the purchase of Mortgage-Backed Securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a coordinated move to drive home loan rates down to 4.5%. 

As rates have decreased the past week or so, mortgage companies saw an increase in refinance applications.  News of rates potentially dropping to 4.5% gave cause for many to take a wait and see approach in hopes of landing the lowest possible rate. 

Though the government buying Mortgage-Backed Securities does help drive down rates, it may have been quite careless to announce a target of 4.5%.  Since so many factors influence the market which drives rates, no one action can cause the affect they are looking.

Most days, the bond market reacts directly opposite of the stock market.  When news comes out that causes a rally on Wall Street, investors typically are pulling money out of the bond market to buy stocks, which in turn causes mortgage rates to increase.

Today we are seeing optimistic economic news that is causing this very reaction.  Word of legislators reportedly agreeing to an outline of a deal to rescue the struggling auto industry is helping the stock market.  Also helping stocks is the announcement of a massive infrastructure investment pledged by President-elect Obama.

The entire market continues to be extremely volatile and every announcement can cause dramatic swings.  Predicting that rates will hit a particular number is both difficult and dangerous.  My hope is that rates do continue to decline and spur a recovery of the housing market.  Whether or not rates make it to 4.5% is simply something we'll have to wait and see.  If we do see a continuance of positive economic news, rates may continue to climb and those who were waiting for 4.5% may have lost a wonderful opportunity.

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Rainer
38,809
Michelle Chamberlain
Above All Financial Services -Pennsylvania Mortgage Broker - Secane, PA
Suburban Philadelphia Mortgage Broker

Karl,

It's my understanding that the 4.5% rate was to be subsidized by the govt.   Therefore if the real interest rate was 5.5% the banks would charge the customers 4.5% and the government would pay them the difference.  I really hope people aren't waiting based on this rumor though.  It is true they may have missed out.

Michelle

Dec 08, 2008 04:57 PM #1
Rainer
108,048
Karl Peidl
Moorestown, NJ
Accredited Loan Consultant

Michelle - I haven't read much about their actual plan ither than buying mortgage-backed securities.  I thought perhaps they would offer special programs using tax-exempt bonds similar to First Time Home Buyer programs offered by various states.  Either way, people are definitely holding out for 4.5%.  I just had someone balk at 5.5% on a 30 year fixed because they felt that was too high.  Amazing.

Dec 09, 2008 01:40 AM #2
Rainmaker
224,219
Nancy Larson
I am a licensed referral agent in NJ - Hutchinson Island, FL

Karl, I do hope they weren't my friends....lol.

Spoke to her via email today, she is my daughters gf, the one who just gave birth....C is so excited.

Dec 09, 2008 12:13 PM #3
Rainer
108,048
Karl Peidl
Moorestown, NJ
Accredited Loan Consultant

I'd say she's about 2/3 excited and 1/3 nervous.  How are your daughter and the baby doing?

Dec 10, 2008 02:44 AM #4
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Karl Peidl

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