I'm curious, how are things going in your market area? I was doing a little research on my market, Poinciana Fl, this morning and discovered that sales are down 59% from same period last year (Jan 1-Apr 24). Last year, this period, there were 360 closings, this year 137. That's a pretty drastic change. There are also currently 1,734 active listings in my two zip codes. So, if you do the math, there is more than two years worth of inventory in Poinciana! Also, our 2 largest builders, Avatar (the developer) and Maronda Homes have just slashed their prices by approximately 15% over the last 30 days.
So folks, it ain't a purdy picture. Now, fortunately for me, my numbers are about the same as they were last year. I've had 12 closings and I have 22 active listings. I'm still on tract to have 40 closings, this year, which is always my target. I must say though, it has been very difficult to keep my business on tract. Pricing has been the key. Values are declining rapidly and I really have to be picky on what listings I take. I'm fortunate that I get a lot of calls so I am able to turn down listings where I can't get the price right. For me, increased inventory is very important in this market.
The part I don't like is all the folks that I can't help due to high mortgage balances. Some are in dire straights and not being able to help them is a bummer. But what can I do? It doesn't make any sense to list a property I can't sell. It waste my time and money and it gives Sellers "false hope". Unless they really need to sell, they need to wait.
I predict it's going to get worse before it gets better. There's just too much inventory and too many Investor owned properties that are clogging up the market.
What I see happening is property values continuing to drop and inventory continuing to rise. With the shake up in the sub-prime market more folks are not able to purchase and will be needing rentals. Once prices drop another 10% or so, hopefully, Investors will get back in to the market and start buying homes to rent out. More people needing to rent will eventually cause an increase in rents. Higher rents and lower property values will open up the Investor market. This will cause a decrease in inventory and that should start leveling things out some. The million dollar question is....How long will this take? My guess is a couple of years.
So there you have it, Broker Bryant's brief analysis and prediction of market conditions in Poinciana Fl. How are things in your market?
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