My market ain't purdy!!

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC BK607690

 I'm curious, how are things going in your market area? I was doing a little research on my market, Poinciana Fl, this morning and discovered that sales are down 59% from same period last year (Jan 1-Apr 24). Last year, this period, there were 360 closings, this year 137. That's a pretty drastic change. There are also currently 1,734 active listings in my two zip codes. So, if you do the math, there is more than two years worth of inventory in Poinciana! Also, our 2 largest builders, Avatar (the developer) and Maronda Homes have just slashed their prices by approximately 15% over the last 30 days.

So folks, it ain't a purdy picture. Now, fortunately for me, my numbers are about the same as they were last year. I've had 12 closings and I have 22 active listings. I'm still on tract to have 40 closings, this year, which is always my target. I must say though, it has been very difficult to keep my business on tract. Pricing has been the key. Values are declining rapidly and I really have to be picky on what listings I take. I'm fortunate that I get a lot of calls so I am able to turn down listings where I can't get the price right. For me, increased inventory is very important in this market.

The part I don't like is all the folks that I can't help due to high mortgage balances. Some are in dire straights and not being able to help them is a bummer. But what can I do? It doesn't make any sense to list a property I can't sell. It waste my time and money and it gives Sellers "false hope". Unless they really need to sell, they need to wait.

I predict it's going to get worse before it gets better. There's just too much inventory and too many Investor owned properties that are clogging up the market.

What I see happening is property values continuing to drop and inventory continuing to rise. With the shake up in the sub-prime market more folks are not able to purchase and will be needing rentals. Once prices drop another 10% or so, hopefully, Investors will get back in to the market and start buying homes to rent out. More people needing to rent will eventually cause an increase in rents. Higher rents and lower property values will open up the Investor market. This will cause a decrease in inventory and that should start leveling things out some. The million dollar question is....How long will this take? My guess is a couple of years.

So there you have it, Broker Bryant's brief analysis and prediction of market conditions in Poinciana Fl. How are things in your market?

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 Tutas Towne Realty, Inc handles Florida real estate sales, Florida short sales, Florida strategic short sales, Florida pre-foreclosure sales, Florida foreclosures in Kissimmee Florida Short Sales, Davenport Florida Short Sales, Haines City Florida Short Sales, Poinciana Florida Short Sales, Solivita Florida Short Sales,  Orlando Florida Short Sales, Celebration Florida Short Sales, Windermere Florida Short Sales. Serving all of Polk, Osceola and Orange Counties Florida. Florida Short Sale Broker. Short Sale Florida.

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Rainmaker
720,287
Teri Eckholm
Boardman Realty - White Bear Lake, MN
REALTOR Serving Mpls/St Paul North & East Metro

Bryant--This sounds exactly like the market in the Twin Cities a couple of years ago...Yesterday on the news it was stated that we had the worse quarter in 20 years and the average price of homes dropped a quarter of a percent. I too think that it will be a year or two before everything shakes out and the market levels off. Subprime lending is a huge factor in our market. The foreclosure rate is unbelieveable in some metro areas (I heard one in four in NE Mpls).

The good news as we have been in these type of market for a year...Is: HOMES ARE SELLING! Not at the astronomical prices of the past but at fair prices that are still 20% over what homes sold for in 2001. But less than what was paid in 2005. So if you have owned your home for a few years and didn't refinance all of the equity out, you are ok!

Apr 25, 2007 01:07 AM #24
Rainmaker
453,651
Allison Stewart
St.Cloud Homes - Saint Cloud, FL
St. Cloud Fl Realtor, Osceola County Real Estate 407-616-9904

Good Morning Broker Bryant!  No it is not pretty- I too have had to say no thanks to High Priced Homes and wonder ewhat some agents are thinking.  There is one right up the street from my house who has been active for over a year and is on Brokerage Firm # 4 and actually raised the price which was already "rejected" curb appeal...no that would require effort..so it has None, zero, zip nada. There is no such thing as "I don't want to give me house away" anymore...now it is you either want to sell it or you don't.  Stevens Plantation is a good example of builders undercutting resale owners who simply cannot compete.

How about those Foreclosures?  1 IN  274 HERE IN ST. CLOUD, FLORIDA!  The banks are not willing to take less and are in a race to the courthouse to file their petitios with the second and third place lien holders. Cutting our commissions after payoffs a lot!  Yes, it will get worse, but we will survive it!

Apr 25, 2007 02:02 AM #25
Rainmaker
1,142,060
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time
OK I'm still here. Sorry had to work this morning. I'm loving all the different market reports. Good to see how other markets are doing. And STILL mine is the worst. I need to move:)
Apr 25, 2007 05:49 AM #26
Ambassador
557,018
"The Lovely Wife" (Broker Bryantnulls Wife) The One And Only TLW.
President-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc. - Kissimmee, FL

Blog Boy...

That last comment had a "whiney" undertone.

Don't make me make you laugh :)

TLW...ROAR!

Apr 25, 2007 06:01 AM #27
Rainer
3,477
Maronda Homes
Maronda Homes - Sebastian, FL
Bryant, I purchased my Maronda Home (as an employee) for 22% lower than what someone would have paid in early 2006. That doesn't even include my discount. I don't think our prices can go any lower here in Ocala, Florida. Talk to you later!
Apr 25, 2007 10:57 AM #28
Rainer
118,729
Bob Sloop, Consultant, Indianapolis, IN
RS Mortgage Consulting - Indianapolis, IN
Bryant, ours is not much prettier, of course we have posted before with our concerns.  We are still having twice as many homes being listed, 1/3rd being sold and who knows how many expireds we have.  Foreclosure rate is not slowing down.  I think we are in for a tough ride here.  I am happy to report today I am still seeing some die hard lenders out there doing sub prime, in the five hundred fifty range.  I was sure those scores were going to creep on up and over 640 but not yet.....will keep you posted if things turn around, which is what we pray for each day.  Good post.
Apr 25, 2007 11:20 AM #29
Rainer
151,716
Cynthia Sloop
Community Association Manager - Indianapolis, IN

BB -

Thanks for sharing what's really happening in your market and getting some different markets conversation and perspective.  It's a tough market in Greater Indianapolis.  Homes do sell but they need to be priced right!  Buyers want GREAT deals and often really low-ball homes that they finally write an offer on.  I've talked with some of the production builder sales people and they say that it's harder to make a sale because of changes in the mortgage industry.  There's an abundance of foreclosures and short sales.  I'm still struggling to make a spot for myself in this market.  I am doing better than I was a year ago but because of it being my first year last year, I really needed things to pick up and go better in 2007. 

Apr 25, 2007 12:05 PM #30
Rainmaker
1,142,060
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

Bob and Cynthia, sounds like your market is very much like Poinciana. I've been getting many very low offers. Even when I price a home way below market value the buyers are still coming in 10 to 15% below list! Very difficult times. But I've been here before. When I first started selling property in Poinciana 13 years ago, it was normal to take 12 to 18 months to sell a house. 

Jason, Thanks for visiting. I'd say you got a deal on that house. Way to go.

Cheryl, Always good to see you. You really love your job don't you?

Hun, me whine?

Apr 25, 2007 12:56 PM #31
Ambassador
261,096
Fran Gatti
RE/MAX Integrity - Medford, OR
Managing Principal Broker - RE/MAX Integrity

Bryant,

Holding steady in Del Norte County, California.  61 closings Jan. 1, 07 to present, 66 closings Jan. 1, 06 - April 25, 06.  New listings in our office are brisk.  I see people moving here to escape the heat and traffic, and to retire.

Fran

Apr 25, 2007 05:15 PM #32
Rainer
53,146
Ron Withers ----Retired Mortgage Professional
Kissimmee, FL

Bryant,

It would give me a great deal of pleasure to argue your opinion but you you have it backed up with facts. Now if you add in the FSBO's and non-MLS listings....geesh.....the numbers are ugly!

Apr 25, 2007 11:01 PM #33
Rainmaker
595,381
Lisa Hill
Florida Property Experts - Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Beach Real Estate
A great post! Using facts and figures is my method of choice for conveying the picture to my clients.
Apr 26, 2007 04:36 AM #34
Rainmaker
337,464
Thesa Chambers
Fred Real Estate Group - Bend, OR
Principal Broker - Licensed in Oregon

Wow such big numbers - lets see - my focus as of late has been La Pine, Oregon and I just received the calculations for the first quarter it looks down.... but if you really look it is not so bad.

I have 14 listings on MLS in La Pine and 6 pocket listings -

2005 - in the first quarter 17 properties closed escrow average sales price was $169,000

2006 - in the first quarter 34 properties closed escrow average sales price was $229,00

2007 - in the first quarter 14 properties closed escrow average sales price was $268,000

although in comparison to 2006 the number of closings are down - notice that our sales prices have continued to gain. 

Apr 26, 2007 10:33 AM #36
Rainmaker
593,707
Neal Bloom
Brokered by eXp Realty LLC - Weston, FL
Realtor CRS-Weston FL Real Estate

Hey BB, 

No offense to anyone who thinks otherwise but I think the market is going to continue downwards until the inventory starts to be reduced by a significant amount.

Right now we are in the real estate vacuum.

Remember.... everyday a property is sold at least 2 are put on the market

Apr 26, 2007 01:29 PM #37
Rainmaker
1,142,060
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

Neal, That's the facts Jack. At least 2 years in my market if I ventured a guess. We actually have more inventory that that right now.

Thesa, That more than a 50% decrease in you market as well. Your values are really doing well though. Is inventory low? Is that why values are still going up?

Terry, That's a lot of new inventory. Where are you located and how does that compare to last year?

Lisa, facts is all we have when it comes to presenting true market data. It paints a reliable picture if used properly. You're doing it right. Good job.

Ron, I'm sure we have several hundred FSBOs and non MLS listings in Poinciana. I see signs every where.

Fran, sounds like you are in a good stable market. I figured you would be with the affordable prices you have(for CA).

Cheryl, Thanks. You're one of my favorites you know. Your honesty and sincerity just ooze from your writing and that's a very good thing. Your customers and clients are very fortunate. Who knows maybe TLW and I will make it to Montana some day.

Apr 26, 2007 01:49 PM #38
Rainer
32,215
John Evarts
Classic Property Management of Santa Clarita - Santa Clarita, CA
my predictions for SoCal: 2 more years of decline, between 10 and 20 per cent. Then hover for 2-3 years, then start climbing. Prognosis? Buy.
Apr 27, 2007 06:32 AM #39
Rainmaker
1,142,060
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time
John, So Cal sounds just like my market. Except of course your prices are waaaaay higher.
Apr 27, 2007 09:42 AM #40
Rainmaker
3,053,038
Tony and Suzanne Marriott, Associate Brokers
Haven Express @ Keller Williams Arizona Realty - Scottsdale, AZ
Serving Scottsdale, Phoenix and Maricopa County AZ
BB - Not familiar with your area - but is there an opportunity to expand your geographic coverage to increase inventory of correctly priced listings?
Apr 30, 2007 01:32 AM #41
Rainmaker
1,142,060
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time
Tony, I actually have plenty of listing opportunities. I could expand but really have no desire to. I'm at a different stage in my career than you are. After 13 years I'm very comfortable with the amount of biz that I do. I'm out of growth mode and more into taking life easy while making a very good living mode:)
Apr 30, 2007 01:39 AM #42
Ambassador
787,506
Kat DeLong
LakeView Realty Enterprises, Inc - Lake Arrowhead, CA
Realtor DRE#01235311, Lake Arrowhead Real Estate (
Our market has a face only a mother could love.  NOT purdy, either. 
Apr 30, 2007 10:51 AM #43
Rainmaker
659,518
Randy Prothero
eXp Realty - Mililani, HI
Hawaii REALTOR, (808) 384-5645
Our market on Oahu slowed in 2006 from 2005, but has leveled.  Some areas are climbing slowly and others have dropped slowly.  The best expert predictions is a couple of years of level prices and sales.  I hope they are right.
May 02, 2007 07:43 PM #44
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