Return to normal???

By
Home Builder with Brown Midwest, LLC

    When will the real estate business get back to normal? We probably all ask ourselves that every day. I've been in the real estate business for over 30 years which ....... could actually indicate my lack of intelligence. But I happen to believe the United States is poised for a mild to strong housing rebound in the spring 2009. I conclude this for several reasons but consider the following:

1. We have a new president (like him or not).

2. Mortgage interest rates are very attractive.

3. New home inventory continues to decline.

4. New home formation continues (colleges are still graduating students and immigration, although reduced is still going on)

5. Our federal governement is and will continue to pump serious amounts of liquidity into the economy.

6.  Our government is working on ways to improve existing home values.

    Given all these factors, I believe there's a "perfect storm" brewing for a strong housing recovery in early 2009. So!.....enjoy the holiday season and look forward to spring because you are going to be busy. Those are my thoughts as it snow here in Kansas City and the temps outside are 10 degrees about zero. Burrr. Great day to stay in and surf the net. What are your thoughts?

 

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Rainer
35,968
Andrea Palmer
Jones & Co. Realty 239-333-5556 - Cape Coral, FL
Phone 239-333-5556

I agree ( at least I sure hope so) we all need it :)

Dec 16, 2008 12:21 AM #1
Rainer
16,248
Quad Cities My RealTeam (Mel Foster Co.)
Keith Allen Allborty - Davenport, IA

Like the stock market it goes in cycles it gets bad then it gets great, can't wait for the great cause the part time Real estate agents around here have mostly all quit

Dec 16, 2008 12:26 AM #2
Rainer
1,173
Brenda Duley
Coldwell Banker Commercial - Key West, FL

Gabe,

From one long-time Realtor to another, I would like to share this.

My market is in Key West, FL.  Our downturn began in May 2005.  I told my colleagues of the unfortunate event taking place, and they scoffed at such an idea.  By November of that year, sales ceased.  Since then, it has been a spiral down in price and a flood of product.

I went the NAR Convention in November, 2008 and people would ask me how our market was.  I told them I was not sure, but seemed to me the tide had turned and if we were not on the way up, we were also not headed down anymore.  No statistics to back it up, just my sense of things (inquiries, talk, phone calls, etc).

Now we are approaching the end of this year and I will make a public announcement: OUR MARKET HAS TURNED.  We may be flatlining as values go, but we are transacting.  We have embraced the reality of our financial situations and moved on as Americans.  We are forging ahead.

This year will end up as one of my stronger income years.  And next year.....Whoa! Hang in there.  The markets flow like this:  Resort areas, ocean side have the deepest highs and lows.  We fall first in a declining time.  It then seeps into the state(s), and slowly it affects the heartlands and central regions, but the highs and lows are not as severe. 

Speaking from the edge (Southernmost point in the US)we have made it through yet one more downturn and welcome the near future with relief and open arms.  Hang in there.  We have made it once again.

Dec 16, 2008 12:36 AM #3
Rainmaker
217,571
Richard Shuman
The Only B.S. I Have is from the University of Massachusetts - Lake Mary, FL
Real Estate Broker - Orlando Area - Love Referrals

What's Normal?  I think 2009 will be a great year for agents that work full time and willing to go the extra mile!

Dec 16, 2008 12:45 AM #4
Rainmaker
296,631
Cherimie Crane
Cherimie Crane & Associates - Beaufort, SC

Yipee!! I am so glad I found this post. It is such a comfort hearing experiences of long time agents.

Thank you. I needed this!

Dec 16, 2008 12:47 AM #5
Rainmaker
296,631
Cherimie Crane
Cherimie Crane & Associates - Beaufort, SC

P.S. .This might sound odd..but I don't usually comment on posts with the GRAY PERSON. Maybe it is just because I am a visual type.

Either way, I am glad I clicked!

Dec 16, 2008 12:51 AM #6
Rainer
1,173
Brenda Duley
Coldwell Banker Commercial - Key West, FL

Oh Gabe, another thing if forgot to mention.  It will be 80 degrees today, got the pool heater going and intend to swim in a day or two. Cheers! and Merry Christmas.

Dec 16, 2008 12:52 AM #7
Rainmaker
132,893
Lanette Branch
RE/MAX Components - Fallston, MD
Bel Air, MD REALTOR

I'm with Richard - what is Normal?  That's a really subjective word.  No matter how you look at it, folks will always need a shelter, though.

Dec 16, 2008 01:09 AM #8
Rainmaker
3,249,716
Lou Ludwig
Ludwig & Associates - Boca Raton, FL
Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC

Hi Gabe

2009 is shaping up to be an outstanding year for real estate. We just have to go for it.

Good luck and success

Lou Ludwig

Dec 16, 2008 01:14 AM #9
Rainmaker
250,018
Mike Klijanowicz
Cummings & Co. Realtors - Perry Hall, MD
Associate Broker @ Cummings & Co. Realtors

I did a post about this a few weeks back and completely agree with you.  It was called are you ready for the 2009 boom...

Dec 16, 2008 01:21 AM #10
Rainmaker
292,354
Home Loan Search.Online
Home Loan Search Online - Newnan, GA

I look for a steady improvement by the Summer of 2009, but I don't see it returning to the "boom" of a few years back.

Dec 16, 2008 01:22 AM #11
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Rainer
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Gideon A. (Gabe) Brown

Brown Midwest, LLC
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