Osterville Real Estate Cape Cod Waterfront Luxury Real Estate Agent Top Ten

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Dunhill Group

This weeks top ten and I apologize for the missed weeks....

1.  I think the report on Sundays 60 minutes about where the bottom is was quite telling.  I'm not sure how people out there feel about the show on the whole but personally I feel the staff and reporters do a great job of digging deep to find the meat of stories.  Scott Pelley report about Whitney Tilsons and his views of the "Alt-A and option ARMs" fiasco that is on the horizon was quite sobering.  It is frightening to think that according to him and others we are only in the third inning of this economic disaster.  Here is a short excerpt of that interview and the rest can be found at this link http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/12/60minutes/main4666112.shtml

            Now the Alt-A and option ARM loans made back in the heyday are starting to reset, causing the mortgage payments to go up and homeowners to default.

"The defaults right now are incredibly high. At unprecedented levels. And there's no evidence that the default rate is tapering off. Those defaults almost inevitably are leading to foreclosures, and homes being auctioned, and home prices continuing to fall," Tilson explains.

"What you seem to be saying is that there is a very predictable time bomb effect here?" Pelley asks.

"Exactly. I mean, you can look back at what was written in '05 and '07. You can look at the reset dates. You can look at the current default rates, and it's really very clear and predictable what's gonna happen here," Tilson says.

Just look at a projection from the investment bank of Credit Suisse: there are the billions of dollars in sub-prime mortgages that reset last year and this year. But what hasn't hit yet are Alt-A and option ARM resets, when homeowners will pay higher interest rates in the next three years. We're at the beginning of a second wave.

"How big is the potential damage from the Alt As compared to what we just saw in the sub-primes?" Pelley asks.

"Well, the sub-prime is, was approaching $1 trillion, the Alt-A is about $1 trillion. And then you have option ARMs on top of that. That's probably another $500 billion to $600 billion on top of that," Tilson says.

 2.  I have great issue with reports of a lobbyist for the National Association of Realtors leaking that the mortgage rates would be dropping to 4.5% didn't do anyone any favors.  Anyone that was interested in the buying some of these great deals out there right now in the market is now back on the sideline waiting for this possible new mortgage rate.  Thanks for nothing....

3.  CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett both going to the Yankees.  They must have something for initials down in New York this off season.  I think if they were trying to buy a new pitching staff this year they are off to one hell of a start.  However I believe Sabathia is 1-4 pitching in New York and Burnett seems only to not be injured and pitch well in contract years.  I hope the Yankees don't get Teixera and have to settle on Manny.  He could literally destroy that team from the inside out I mean if he didn't like the spotlight in Boston how is New York going to treat him...

4.  In the past I favored the "Bailout" but now I think that Congress is doing the right thing by not jumping in to save the auto industry.  By giving the Big Three money now will only keep them on the same path that they currently are following.  By being forced to file for bankruptcy the auto makers will be allowed to renegotiate with all of their purveyors and their work force as well.  It is obvious that the UAW has a stranglehold on the Big Three, but their management practices have also been terrible.  Try building cars that people want to buy!  The relative difference between what the Japanese auto makers pay their workforce is only about $850 per car!  Well that is not the reason we are not selling American auto's.  We need to be more competitive across the board with new concepts and innovative thinking. Not the same old dame old which is exactly what we are going to get if lawmakers decide to appropriate funds to the tune of 14 billion dollars.  And if George Bush decides that all of Capitol Hill is wrong and decides to have the White House step in and bail out Detroit he will cement his presidency as the worst of all time. 

5.  I think that the job done by Matt Cassel this year and the rest of the Patriots is nothing short of amazing.  I do however have to give most of the credit to Belichick and his systems.  Sure Matt Cassel is probably going to make alot of money out in free agency next year or he's going to make a lot if the Pats franchise him, either way he should thank Belichick.  And do the Pats have anyone left on the defense who isn't injured...

6.  Talk about a steal by Theo Epstein of signing Dustin Pedroia for the next six years at those numbers.  Great general manager and also a good deal for the player who now has financial security for the rest of his life.  There's something to be said for that.  Still great signing!!!

7.  I couldn't have been happier to see the "Juice" sent off to prison.  Talk about a sense of entitlement and complete recklessness.  Yeah O.J. when you bring a gun to a hotel room and tell the people there they can't leave until they give you what you want is called ARMED ROBBERY AND KIDNAPPING.  So take your fake tears and enjoy the next nine years of your life in JAIL!!!

8.   Its about ready to explode down in "Big D" as T.O. and Romo and Whitten are about ready to have a race war over whose getting the ball too much or too little.  Hard to say you didn't see this one coming.  I think it might be time for a new coach, one that doesn't coddle all his players and can control the ones that need to be controlled.  However that being said you will never get another great coach as long as Jerry Jones patrols the sidelines during the games and calls out his players when he thinks they aren't injured.  Jerry I suggest you put on some pads and get out there yourself if not keep your mouth shut...

9.  I think these actors and actresses that are considering going on strike for more money should take a look at what's going on in the economy before they make any monumental decisions.  I'm hearing that the networks are cutting back some of there programming because corporate America can't afford the ad rates.  We are probably in for more reality TV and prime time game shows which cost dramatically less to produce than shows.  Pay attention people were in a recession and you are a luxury.

10.  I hope all have a safe and wonderful holiday season and a happy New Year!!!

Ted 

Comments (7)

Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

Hi Ted, great post.  Thanks.  I wonder if this will make featured or only the one that slams the 60 minutes show as being inaccurate and doom and gloom.

Dec 16, 2008 02:17 AM
Ted Komenda
Dunhill Group - Osterville, MA

Gabe, thanks for taking the time to read and reply!  I've firmly believed that knowledge is power and if understanding what the facts are helps us be better prepared then so be it.  If you watch a show like 60 Minutes and take the time to check their facts you are the better for it.  As the real estate professional that you are you can better advise your clients with more knowledge than the next person.  I don't see how that is bad....Thanks again!

Ted

Dec 16, 2008 02:33 AM
Ashley Lima
Weichert Realtors, Dunhill Group - Sandwich, MA

Great top ten.  I always look forward to them.

Dec 16, 2008 02:45 AM
Danny Thornton
R & D Art - Knoxville, TN
WordPress Guru

Ted, I have to agree with your number 1 here. The news media only wants you to look at the bad of the market. When is the last time that the news anchor came on and said " Well, Seatlle, Washington's housing market took a turn for the better today as it reported a 3% overall increase in sales"?

Dec 16, 2008 03:28 AM
Erby Crofutt
B4 U Close Home Inspections&Radon Testing (www.b4uclose.com) - Lexington, KY
The Central Kentucky Home Inspector, Lexington KY

Doom & gloom.  If it bleeds, it leads.  I hate watching the news most of the time.  How about reporting on some GOOD news.  It's out there but they won't report it.

I agree with the criticism of the idiot predicting 4.5%.  Sure way to shut down people now.  AND there's no guarantee of the 4.5%.

Dec 16, 2008 11:50 PM
Nick Riina
Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman - Burlington, VT

Really enjoyed reading this!  Keep them coming.

Dec 17, 2008 02:58 AM
Mike Klijanowicz
Cummings & Co. Realtors - Perry Hall, MD
Associate Broker @ Cummings & Co. Realtors

I hear you on the mortgage rates thing.  I'm glad I locked in on a 30 year fixed for 4.75% for my refi when I had the chance.  Another quarter of a point for being extra greedy would have only saved me another 30 bucks a month or so...

Dec 31, 2008 05:27 AM