November Market Update

By
Real Estate Agent with Real Estate One

This report is brought to you by Team Terova and Real Estate One

What has been the effect of the auto bailout on our market? So far not that dramatic. November and the first portion of December continue to follow the prior months patterns of units sales up and median sale price down.

 As we have said before, those with auto related jobs have not been buyers of real estate for 12-18 months or longer, so our market already reflects much of the auto effect. To our benefit, it does appear that in spite of the politics, the government will figure out an auto work-out.

However, should one of the big three file for bankruptcy our market will slow further from the effect on the tangent/support businesses. How much of an effect on home sales is tough to tell.

Determining the true home value change is tricky since both the median and the average price reflect as much the change in the type of home that is being sold (investors and first time buyers) as a decline in value.

For example, the typical home in the city of Detroit is not worth just $7,500, but the typical home that is being purchased IS. It is clear that, although inventories are declining, they have a ways to go to reach to point where home values will begin to climb.

Therefore what is most relevant in setting a home price is finding the most recent strongest comparable sales, adjust for the home differences and then reduce that price. It is reasonable to estimate the price decline rate is at least 1 to 1.5% per month, so if that comparable home sold 8 months ago, your adjusted home value is 10-12%  or more to get ahead of the market. A reminder of those sellers who are looking to move-up in terms of home value and size: With rates currently hitting the 5% range, now is the time to act! What you might give up on your sale you will more than make up on the buy, it is a basic law of mathematics!

In our effort to maintain the leadership position in marketing our homes to more potential buyers than any other broker, we are now sending our listings to Yahoo Real Estate, one of the top real estate designations on the web with 5.1 million visitors is September alone.

Our stats for the market for November are as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     Number of Homes Pending

 

    Available Homes for Sale

 

Area

Nov 07

Nov 08

% Change

Nov 07

Nov 08

% Change

Oakland County

812

         1,080

33.0%

 

19,114

    17,212

-10.0%

 

Macomb County

608

            874

43.8%

 

9,083

     7,436

-18.1%

 

Livingston County

119

            134

12.6%

 

2,999

     2,539

-15.3%

 

Washtenaw County

218

            181

-17.0%

 

3,483

     2,790

-19.9%

 

Wayne ( - Detroit & G.P.)

510

            643

26.1%

 

9,033

     8,415

-6.8%

 

Detroit

738

         1,172

58.8%

 

12,767

     8,915

-30.2%

 

Grosse Pointe(s)

35

             35

0.0%

 

643

        847

31.7%

 

Northwest Michigan*

161

             89

-44.7%

 

8,610

     8,889

3.2%

 

Total

          3,201

        4,208

31.5%

 

   65,732

   57,043

-13.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    Median Sale Price

 

 

   Ave Chance of Selling (in 30 days)

Area

Nov 07

Nov 08

% Change

Nov 07

Nov 08

% Change

Oakland County

160,000

  110,000

-31.3%

 

4%

6%

47.7%

 

Macomb County

118,050

 61,250

-48.1%

 

7%

12%

75.6%

 

Livingston County

173,150

146,950

-15.1%

 

4%

5%

33.0%

 

Washtenaw County

180,000

 152,000

-15.6%

 

6%

6%

3.7%

 

Wayne ( - Detroit)

133,000

   79,000

-40.6%

 

6%

8%

35.3%

 

Detroit

14,900

     7,500

-49.7%

 

6%

13%

127.4%

 

Grosse Pointe(s)

210,000

   156,000

-25.7%

 

5%

4%

-24.1%

 

Northwest Michigan*

146,950

  112,000

-23.8%

 

2%

1%

-46.5%

 

Total

       116,018

   69,998

-39.7%

 

5%

7%

51.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data Source: MiRealsource, Realcomp, Ann Arbor Board & BrokerMetrics

 

 

 

 

 

Ave Chance reflects the % chance the average home will sell in the next 30 days under the current rate of sales

 

* Includes Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim, Leelanau and Benzie counties, waterfront properties and vacant land

 

 

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