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2009 Predictions? Care to jump in?

By Alan May

Real Estate Agent with Jameson Sotheby's International Realty

December 28, 2008 03:48 AM

Anyone willing to go out on a limb, and put in writing their prediction for the viability of the 2009 economy and it's impact on the real estate market?

Yeah... I didn't think so... okay, maybe if I go first?

I'm not an economic optimist, nor am I one of Obama's crazy screaming fans, who faints at a Michelle sighting. I'm hopeful, but not starry-eyed. I don't believe that Obama is some "magic bullet" and that he'll waltz into office, and begin fixing everything with a little prestidigitation. I think he has his work cut out for him.

My prediction for the general economy is somewhat bleak... I don't think we've begun to see all the layoffs, and their impact on the economy. There are more business closings and layoffs in our future. We've had a few bright points (Amazon.com seems to be one of them) for for every bright spot, we've seen 100 black holes.

All that being said, I think the real estate market will begin to see some stablization in 2009. I don't think it will be in time for our Spring market, but hopeful by year's end, we'll stop seeing severe downward pressure on prices. Homes, at least in our area (Greater Chicagoland) have slowed their downward plunge. Mary Umburger, a Chicago Tribune real estate writer, has even suggested that home prices in our area are now 3.5% BELOW their actual value, and that the market mentality just hasn't caught up with that yet.

I think we're going to have a challenging year. If you had a tough year in 2008, you can expect more of the same... perhaps with a slight improvement toward the end of the year. If you had a good year in 2008, you're doing tsomething right. If you had a great year in 2008, well... I think you're going to be hard-pressed to do it again in 2009... but please, prove me wrong.

So... are we continuing downward.... stabilizing.... seeing some upward motion?? What are your thoughts?

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Teresa K. Nelson

Compass - Woodinville, WA

Your Trusted Real Estate Advisor

Oh Man Alan! I feel like you just told me that Santa isn't real!

Dec 28, 2008 06:05 AM

Carol Clay

Looking Glass Realty - Brevard, NC

Broker/REALTOR, Brevard NC Real Estate Specialist

There are people out there who are a lot smarter than I am and know a lot more than I do..so all that being said...my answer is WHO KNOWS! LOL Like you, Obama was not my choice and I don't believe he is the second coming. But he has the job now and I can only hope that he has some rabbits in his hat.

I don't think anything is going to happen until people start feeling more secure. More secure in their jobs, the economy, and our government. And that isn't going to happen anytime soon, I'm afraid. At least as long as the government keeps doing hair brain things like all the bailouts. We've lost at least 6 buyers this year who, one by one, called to say that because of the shifts in their portfolios, they aren't comfortable buying anything...and since a large part of our market is made up of second home buyers, it's had a big affect on us.

Based on what I'm reading, I think we're in for another year of hard times. People will continue to relocate and hopefully some will begin to see the value in investing in a down market like now. In the meantime, I'm like everyone else...playing things very close to the vest.

Dec 28, 2008 06:21 AM

Jim Crawford

Long & Foster - Fredericksburg, VA

Jim Crawford Broker Associate Fredericksburg VA

I think we are in for some hard drop in prices. What happened in the last few years was a bad dream that should never have happened. It was fueled by no money down which drove prices up by peole that should not have ever been able to purchase. We have a long way to go yet. If they prop up the prices they will prolong the pain. It was a bad loan to begin with.

Dec 28, 2008 06:31 AM

Alan May

Jameson Sotheby's International Realty - Evanston, IL

Home is where the hearth is.

Teresa... not real... what?

Carol, I didn't say that Obama wasn't my choice... only that I'm not a fanatical fan, rather a resigned supporter. For me, it was once again, the lesser of two evils.

Jim, sometimes it makes more sense to take today's pain, rather than postponing it for later at a greater cost. Unfortunately, they didn't consult us, did they?

Dec 28, 2008 08:29 AM

Not a real person

San Diego, CA

I'm a home inspector and had a great year in 2008. I believe it comes from persistently and consistently working my business plan, especially the marketing part of it. NAR reported that as of November, seasonally adjusted sales of homes would be 4.9 million for 2008. Keep in mind that that is not much of a prediction anymore because 11 of the 12 months are already gone, so one could reasonably presume that most of 11/12 of those 4.9 million homes have already by sold.

Even if the 2009 market falls by, say, 50%, that's still 2.45 million homes that will sell. That's a lot of homes.

If one cannot get a piece of that huge pie, then I believe that one doesn't understand marketing and/or customer service.

Best wishes for health, happiness, peace, and prosperity in 2009.

Dec 28, 2008 07:03 PM

Alan May

Jameson Sotheby's International Realty - Evanston, IL

Home is where the hearth is.

That's an interesting perspective, Russel... thanx :-)

Dec 29, 2008 12:29 AM

Caren Wallace

Premier Property Group LLC - Tualatin, OR

Portland Caren Real Estate

Well, if it is any indication, I put a general buyer/seller ad in the paper over the weekend and I had 2 listing appts. as a result!

I also had a call from a buyer who was referred to me from a past client!

I am enthusiastic for the new year! POSITIVITY!!!!!

Happy New Year!

Dec 29, 2008 10:32 PM

Sun City Grand Homes Surprise AZ Real Estate Leolinda Bowers Designated Broker Leolinda Realty

Leolinda Realty - Surprise, AZ

Sun City Grand in Surprise Arizona

I would like to agree with you but cannot even though I try to think positively. I just can't see the market changing in 2009.

There are too many people walking away from their homes and letting it go into foreclosure. The job market has slim pickings with relief on the way to primarily those who want to do physical labor. Every where you turn businesses have shut their doors. The stimulation packages have not really worked. The bailouts are another fiasco.

Hold on because this may be a long ride.

Dec 29, 2008 11:20 PM

Alan May

Jameson Sotheby's International Realty - Evanston, IL

Home is where the hearth is.

Caren, that sounds great... and thinking positive is a good thing... let's just be sure it's not a false-positive

I know the market is tough Leolinda, and we have only just begun to see the ramifications of some of this year's financial debacles, and the layoffs are just beginning. But here in the Chicago area (I can really only speak about my own area)...we've begun to see some renewed activity... home prices have dropped so low, that it's brought some of the people off the bench and into the game.

While they're not flying off the shelf, we've begun to see somewhat reticent buyers, begin buying again, and that gives me hope for 2009. Don't get me wrong.. I'm not predicting a major upsweep in '09... but I do believe, while we're going to have a challenging '09.. that by the end of the year... (at least here) we'll have seen that downward trend in pricing slow and perhaps come to a halt.

Dec 30, 2008 12:40 AM

Bruce Brockmeier

Internet Marketing Consultant to REALTORS® - Yorba Linda, CA

Coached By Crouch

So... are we continuing downward.... stabilizing.... seeing some upward motion?? What are your thoughts?

I think we will see all three options, simultaneously. Real estate is still local. Some markets will be relatively strong, some will stay in a holding pattern, and some will probably be hurting all year.

Dec 30, 2008 10:24 AM