It has occurred to me as I have been doing my year end market reports and reading so many others on ActiveRain that I could learn a lot about how my Lake Norman housing market is going to progress this year IF ONLY I could get some true insight from those of you who have hit your bottom and have pretty healthy absorption rates.
From Florida to Michigan to California I am reading fascinating year end reports that are showing some real signs of improvement while my area sales have dropped 50%.
My Lake Norman real estate downturn was very late to the party. We saw a slight drop in sales starting in March of 2007 but weren't truly starting to feel real pain until 2008. Here is our problem:
- Our inventories are still very high even though they are down from almost 1800 to 1400.
- Our sales are very very low
- Our absorption rates remain in the 23-34 months of supply on hand!
- Average prices have only dropped about 5%
As I look to 2009 I keep wondering HOW are we going to GET THE ABSORPTION RATES DOWN to 8 months of supply? How are we going to get our inventory down and our sales up? I am guessing we are going to have to see some serious price reductions BEFORE we see an increase in sales significant enough to impact our months of supply of active listings. But we aren't seeing nearly enough as we should.
Am I right? I think the answers are here on ActiveRain. Those of you who were hit first and are crawling out can help those of us who are behind you.
What happened first in your market? How did you get your inventories down and your sales stabilized? How did you get prices down to the point where buyers felt confident enough to get off of the fence?