Did we hit bottom in November 2008? Time will tell in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope

2008? Whew! Glad that's over.

2009? At least we know what we're dealing with.

Here's a backward look on a sorry year in real estate, and a forward look in which I will stick my neck out.

2008:

•n       Twenty-four percent fewer homes sold than in 2007 from Spanish Fort to Point Clear.  

•n       Foreclosures, short sales and distress sales (essentially pre-foreclosures) captured buyers' attention.

•n       On the Eastern Shore, the average sales price was down only 1% from the previous year and the median sales price was down just 6%. But it didn't feel that way, and a late-year statistic proved the point: In December, sellers took on average 8% off the list price to move their homes.

2009:

•n       Interest rates have already dropped after the Fed unveiled a plan to buy $500 billion in mortgage securities and debt. For just a few hours one day in December, the rate hit 4.25%. The drop has triggered a new refinancing boom and hopefully will spill over into home sales.

•n       Business Week magazine predicts the market has hit bottom, but prices will remain weak through the end of 2009. It cites the large inventory of houses as a negative and predicts potential sellers who have been sitting on the fence will put their homes on the market at the first sign of improvement, leading to more inventory. Locally, November was the worst month for sales (only 47 on the Eastern Shore), mirroring sales the month after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. I agree - and hope - we've hit bottom in terms of the number of sales.

•n        There's a lot of pent-up demand. Marriage, divorce, new babies, retirement: Think about everyone who had a housing need that they didn't act on in 2008. This year may be their year.

•n       Finally, a couple of opinions: Houses with great prices, and great houses, will sell, as always. If you're considering buying up or down, why wait? You may get less for your present house, but you will probably pay less for your new one, and the interest rate will be very attractive.

On to the stats:

            Fourth quarter sales on the Eastern Shore registered a yearly low. Only 162 sold, compared with 265 in the third quarter. Average sales price was $260,838, with sellers taking on average 6% off the list price to sell. Average days on market were 162.

            For the year, 833 homes sold, compared to 1,092 in 2007. Average sales price declined slightly from $292,091 to $287,736. The time it took to sell lengthened from 144 days in 2007 to 166 days in 2008. (Note: Both figures were skewed by houses being re-listed.)

            Fairhope: 57 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, compared with 68 during the same time in 2007. Average price was $304,455, compared with $356,772 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 157 days to 172 days.

            For the year, 293 homes sold, compared with 400 sales in 2007. Average prices actually rose from $339,028 in 2007 to $353,765. Days on market rose from 162 to 197.

            Daphne/Montrose: 69 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, compared with 58 in the 4^th quarter of 2007. Average sales price declined to $248,922, from $258,273 at the same time in 2007. Days on market rose from 153 to 166.

            During all of 2008, 321 homes sold, compared with 394 in 2007. Average sales price was $271,599, down from $295,486 for all of 2007. Days on market stretched from 141 to 150.

            Lake Forest: 15 homes sold, compared with 25 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $162,768 to $139,600. Days on market lengthened from 101 days to 124 days.

            For the whole of the year, 99 homes sold, compared with 114 in 2007. Average prices dropped from $170,930 to $157,355 in 2008. Days on market rose from 110 to 159.

            Spanish Fort: 21 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, compared with 33 during the last quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $304,803 to $268,198 in 2008. The time it took to sell was virtually unchanged at about 130 days.

            In 2008, 120 homes sold vs. 145 in 2007. Average sales price dropped from $281,232 to $277,245. The days on market stretched from 123 days to 140 days.

Inventory: As of Jan. 8, there were 1,082 homes on the market on the Eastern Shore.

■ Spanish Fort: 118

■ Daphne/Montrose: 328

■ Fairhope: 502

■ Lake Forest: 134.

  If you have specific questions about your home's value, feel free to call or email.