Sales and Currently Active Listings of Single Family Homes, Towwnhomes and Condominiums in Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties for 2008. Source: Pensacola Association of Realtors.
What's going on with the Escambia and Santa Rosa economy and local housing market? Here's the latest from a presentation I attended at the Pensacola Association of Realtors yesterday by experts Dr. Rick Harper, Hass Center for Business Research and Economic Development, Al Muller, Metro Market Trends and local appraiser John Priller:
John Priller- Pensacola area appraisers have just received new, tighter HUD guidelines pertaining to the required number of comparable listings and sales in the last 3, 6, and 9 month periods as well as absorption times. Translation: appraisers have more work to do and we should be looking for fees for appraisals to go up.
John notes that we have watched housing prices in the Greater Pensacola Bay Area fall at a rate of about 1% per month for more than a year and these rates must be taken into account when performing appraisals.
He predicts that we are closer to the bottom for our high end residential properties, but our lower priced properties will continue to fall. He believes we will see our housing prices fall through 2009. Once we reach the bottom of the market we will have a period of "stagnation" before prices begin to rise again.
Dr. Rick Harper- Dr. Harper echos John Priller's predictions. He said that while he had predicted a bottom of the Pensacola Bay Area housing market in late 2009, he is now changing that prediction to early 2010 based on the latest economic news.
While we can consider 6 months of housing inventory (The time it would take to sell all the active listings in the market if no new listings came on.) healthy, we now have 17 months of housing inventory.
Dr Harper pointed to population growth as the driver for the housing industry and said that immigration reform is key for states like Florida who have historically relied on in migration for new growth. While our Pensacola area housing slowdown began prior to the poor nationwide economic news, the slowing economy has certainly hampered any recovery.
Dr. Harper predicts that our commercial sector will continue to soften as "retail follows rooftops."'
There are a few bright spots in the local economy. Our small corner of Florida has always had a more affordable housing market than the rest of the state and our "run up" while significant, was not as extreme as most of the rest of the state. We are also somewhat insulated economically with our military installations. We have seen oil prices and inflation decrease and our trade deficit shrink. Fort Walton Beach will see an estimated 6,000 new jobs created in defense with the BRAC (Base Realignment And Closure) recommendations. Harper predicts that historically low interest rates - as low as 4 to 4.5% - will certainly stimulate housing sales.
Al Muller - Al said that while our prices increased rapidly from 2002 to 2006, the downward trend has been slower. He anticipates this to continue as there is a "Great Hidden Inventory" which is made up of the homes that were on the market but were pulled off when they failed to sell and homes that would have gone on the market if prices had appreciated.
Like John Priller, he anticipates a slow return to appreciation. Al's research is in line with Dr. Harpers as well and he sees declining housing prices for Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties over the next year.
Bottom Line - All the experts agreed that with prices and interest rates low and an ample supply of housing inventory there is a fabulous window of opportunity for purchasing a home over the next year.
For residential listings fitting your customized parameters sent directly to your e-mail inbox on a daily or weekly basis log in to http://robin.pensacolahomesnow.com
Comments(3)