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New York City (Manhattan) Real Estate Market: 2009 Outlook

By
Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Prestige Properties

Context:
At this point market sentiment in Manhattan is cautious at best, maybe even a little apprehensive, like waiting for the other shoe to drop. In other words to see if the market afflictions around the country will come home to roost here in Manhattan's parallel universe.  After all, contract volume is down 75% from 2007 levels, and according to real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel, prices have fallen at least 20% since the summer.

That said, transactions will occur for well-priced properties in desirable buildings having the "right" location, with good layout, light (views/height), etc., especially where changes in employment or family situations require clients to transact. And yes, there still are occasional bidding wars for for those increasingly-rare, well-priced apartments.

Economics will drive price action:
Though the USD is weakening again due to a loss in confidence in the US bailout strategy, higher unemployment, lower consumer spending & corporate profitability, don't expect to see nearly as much interest from foreign buyers as we did in '07 (30% of condos were bought by foreigners back then and this really supported prices). Remember that we're in a global recession and our trading partners' economies are suffering from many of the same afflictions we are (unfortunately the U.S. is main source of these liquidity problems).

Bottom line:
Core market dynamics are now in play and won't be masked by extraneous factors like currency issues. The key is in unemployment patterns, as Wall St. jobs account for ~25% of NYC salaries, and the steady drumbeat of financial sector job losses will be the key factor putting downward pressure on prices throughout 2009 as real estate demand from that sector wanes.

One more thing- in this environment, co-op boards that set high credit/financial standards for applicants wanting to buy shares in their corporations have been somewhat vindicated. Many condo boards have taken, or are now contemplating similar measures. It remains to be seen how much those measures protect the buildings' financial stability, especially if foreclosures begin to pick up steam, and the layoffs continue. So.. let both buyers & sellers beware, and we'll do our best to advocate for them. Well, onward, and here's to good start in 2009!

Keith Elliott Jr
KEIRE Realty Group - Manassas, VA
Principal Broker/Owner

Hello Terry,

Welcome to Active Rain and congrats on your first post! The opportunities to learn and network are incredible here. Best of luck to you!

-Keith

Jan 18, 2009 03:43 PM
Sandy Childs
Keller Williams Realty - Spartanburg, SC
Realtor - Spartanburg, SC

Congratulations on joining Active Rain. This is a great professional networking and referral site. Our Team is working here in the Spartanburg / Greenville areas of South Carolina. We would be thrilled for any referrals you might send our way - or any referrals that we could send to you. Hope you enjoy this site as much as I do.

Jan 18, 2009 04:19 PM
Yvette Gardner
Keller Williams Realty, Spartanburg, SC - Spartanburg, SC

Welcome to the Active Rain community. This is a great site with lots of information.  Have fun with it and hope to see more of your blogs soon!  We have a team of three outstanding full time agents to assist your buyers and sellers in Spartanburg/Greenville, SC.  Let us know if we can ever help. Again, welcome to AR!!

Jan 18, 2009 11:34 PM
Marian Gregor-Ann
Keller Williams - Ann Arbor, MI
Arbor area Real Estate

Hi Terry, Welcome! You're off to a great start. It helped me to check out AR Newbies also if you go to Brad Andersohn's profile, look over his many tutorials. You'll also find guidelines & help/faq at the bottom of the page. I'm happy to help you in whatever way that I can. Now, off to an appt.

Be well ~ Marian

Jan 19, 2009 01:00 AM
Morris Childs
PEP source - Spartanburg, SC

Welcome to Active Rain. It just gets easier after your first blog. Just write about what interests you. Give us a call or an email if we can be of service to you! We can fix most anything, our rates are reasonable and we show up when promised.

Jan 19, 2009 05:46 AM
Jean Terry
Keller Williams Realty Spartanburg, S.C. - Spartanburg, SC

Hi and welcome to Active Rain, a great site to network, share, learn, and have fun. Good Luck.

Jan 19, 2009 01:11 PM
Everard Korthals
---Preferred Lifestyle Advisors--- - Lancaster, PA
Mountain Realty

Welcome!  If ever you were to have any questions then feel free to contact us and we'll try to help. Please take a look at our blog. for links to valuable information in our sidebar that you can use to navigate this extensive network.  

We hope you have a great day, All The Best- 

Sincerely, ( Castellum Realty llc - Lancaster PA Real Estate )

Jan 20, 2009 04:10 PM