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Timing the Bottom of the Market

By Jim Gainer

Managing Real Estate Broker with Howard Hanna Real Estate Services

January 22, 2009 08:25 AM

Well I've heard all kinds of predictions and all kinds of formulas, but the best I've ever heard was David Knox the other day in a workshop he did for our company in Lancaster. David was talking about the fact that all the forces have come together to provide buyers today the best of all situations; lots of inventory, motivated sellers, and historically low interest rates. And yet some buyers hesitate wanting to wait for the bottom of the market. I'll paraphrase:

The fact is you will only know for sure the market has reached the bottom when it goes back up and you've missed it...

Is now a good time to buy? Yes, but not if you can't afford it. You should make the decision to purchase a new home because you want or need a new home. If that time is now...then the time is now, and luck you your in a buyers market. Is this the lowest it will go? Nobody can truely answer that so I won't pretend to know that answer. Might you pay more for your home today than someone will pay in two months? Maybe, but you will have the pleasure of living in your home right now! Let's not forget that.

If home ownership is your dream, then reach out and grab hold of it. If buying a home (any old house will do as long as it is at the bottom of the market) at the absolute lowest price possible...then you missed your chance a few years ago, and if you don't time this one down to the exact minute I don't think you'll be satisfied.

So wait for the market to go a little lower if you want to, but don't be surprised when you realize the bottom was last week.

Just my two cents...

Take good care of your clients and customers and make it a great day!

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Sandy Blanton

Pensacola Real Estate - Team Sandy Blanton Realty, Inc. - Pensacola, FL

Pensacola Real Estate- #1 in 07null- 09null

Jim, "No one rings a bell at the bottom" (of the market). It's impossible to say when the bottom will be with a good level of certainty. That said, most analysts agree on the continuing decline thorugh the rest of this year- at least for our area. I think that's a safe bet...

Jan 24, 2009 03:45 PM

Jon Wnoroski

America's 1st Choice RH Realty Co., Inc. - Green, OH

Summit County Realtor

Hi Jim - We will notice the bottom when indicators begin moving upward (and at a steady pace). I don't have a crystal ball for this (I'm not sure anyone does) but I am hopeful we will see an upward trend before long. I certainly agree that current conditions are great for people ready, willing and able to buy (emphasis on "able"). Thanks for your post.

Jan 26, 2009 12:20 AM

Jim Gainer

Howard Hanna Real Estate Services - Hershey, PA

Sandy, I happen to agree with your guarded pessimism. I tell myself every night that tomorrow will get better, but I plan for a long road back to stability.

Jon, thanks for visiting. You are right we have to make sure we are working with ready and able clients. In times like these some of us get drawn into the 'scarcity mentality', where we work first and ask questions later.

Jan 26, 2009 10:44 PM

Jim, I don't think it's pessismism, it's just the reality of the market. The fact that I think there is an end (to the depreciation) in sight is some of the best news I think we have to offer to sellers right now. Telling the truth is the best thing we can do for our clients- especially the sellers. I caution my sellers with the following, in regards to our local market condition and forecast.

If anyone (a Realtor) tells you to "take your house off the market until next year when things get better," run like hell! Believe it or not, I meet with sellers on a regular basis who have been told this by other Realtors! It's not getting better anytime in the near future folks! Let's say your property is worth $100K today, by year's end it'll be worth $88K. At 2% a year appreciation from 2010 on, it'll take until year 2017 to get back to the $100K you're at right now!

There are always opportunities in any market- it's a great time to buy and selling is still possible for those that really need to. But being anything less than honest only hurts us all in the end. There is a lot of seller denial in the real estate world. As if they have a serious desease, putting of treatment (adjusting to real world values) will only make it worse.

Jan 27, 2009 12:32 AM

Debe Maxwell, CRS

Savvy + Company (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC

The RIGHT CHARLOTTE REALTOR!

Oh, how I wish I had that crystal ball, Jim! I think that we're seeing a bit of a bump upwards so, I feel that in our market we are at or VERY near the bottom--so, you're right, why not buy now (if you can) and enjoy that home for an extra month or two! Especially if you're currently renting!

Debe in Charlotte

Jan 27, 2009 05:04 AM

Barry Brickel

Keller Williams - Redondo Beach, CA

Hi Jim,

I am very green at this as you are the recipient of my first comment on this site so things may look a little funny.

I think David's Comments are very cute, however their are things to look at that can help. The start of the last up market occurred when the Foreclosures peaked in my area. View my statistics for foreclosures at:

http://www.lasouthbayrealestate.com/PageManager/Default.aspx/PageID=2091023&NF=1

Jan 31, 2009 08:35 AM

Barry, thanks for that link. Those are very interesting stats. I never noticed the surge in forclosures before but I can feel one coming now...Please keep commenting, I'd love to see some more of your insights.

I wish for that too Debe, and my agents are asking me what to do and I tell them just take care of your clients' needs and protect them the best way you can.

Thanks for commenting Sandy, you are right about sellers being in denial. The latest thing I hear is "we'll wait for things to settle down" Well by then prices will stabalize or even start back up and so will interest rates.

"Procrastination is the bad habit of putting of until the day after tomorrow what should have been done the day before yesterday." - Napoleon Hill

Feb 10, 2009 04:02 AM

Timing the Bottom of the Market

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