Data Trends-Are Only Two Years Enough?

Recently I've switched from comparing 2007 to 2008 sales numbers as an indicator of trends in Northern Virginia neighborhoods.  Instead I'm posting neighborhood data for the last five years. 

Not all neighborhoods trend the same way at the same time.   However a pattern of when the average prices began to fall, the days on market and seller subsidies began to climb is more apparent with a five year chart than just looking at the last two years.  There is no doubt that I'm not a statistician and rely heavily on the MLS for most of my data.  However since the data is readily available, taking a few extra moments to pull up five years worth of data is a worthwhile exercise.

As an example:

Orange Hunt Estates 2007-2008

Year	Total	Avg List Price	Original List	% of List	Sold Price	Subsidy	Net	DOMM
2008	27	$466,938	$477,372	97.81	$455,230	$6,731	$448,498	44
2007	23	$529,108	$537,147	98.50	$520,648	$7,449	$513,199	51

You can see that prices are down significantly from 2007 to 2008 but where was the peak in the neighborhood?

Orange Hunt Estates 2004-2008

Year	Total	Avg List Price	Original List	% of List	Sold Price	Subsidy	Net	DOMM
2008	27	$466,938	$477,372	97.81	$455,230	$6,731	$448,498	44
2007	23	$529,108	$537,147	98.50	$520,648	$7,449	$513,199	51
2006	25	$554,248	$583,474	96.70	$551,984	$6,144	$545,839	62
2005	37	$557,259	$560,726	99.38	$565,961	$1,654	$564,306	15
2004	38	$460,492	$460,874	99.52	$468,593	$586	$468,007	9

Now you see that the peak was in 2005 and that net sales prices in 2008 are below 2004. You can also see that seller subsidies have played a large role in the last 3 years of sales data

Everyone has their own way of presenting and interpreting data.  Buyers and sellers will look at each report they find with a different view so in no way do I think my way is the right way.  It is helping me with my CMA's before I list a property and for my buyers it gives them a perspective on the ups and downs of Northern Virginia real estate.

If you are thinking of buying or selling your home in Orange Hunt Estates, Springfield (VA) or anywhere in the Northern Virginia area give me a call.  Let's talk about whether now is the right time for you to make a move.  No hassle, no pressure just straight talk about our current market. 

Cindy Jones/Associate Broker
RE/MAX Allegiance
703-346-2213
Specializing in the I-95 Corridor & Military Relocations to the Pentagon, Fort Belvoir and Quantico