A little late in the day, but here is This Weeks Economic Calendar:
This week is a pretty busy Schedule with auctions and a Fed Meeting... here are the items to look for:
- Monday January 26, 2009: December Existing Home sales, expected -1.5%. We can play a little arm chair Quarterback here since I got to this late today! Market was surprised this morning with a stronger than expected number, but average price down quite a bit. It potentially could have been bad for rates, but mortgages have not moved much. A lot of bouncing back and forth all day, but as I type, only slightly negative news.
- Monday: Treasury auctions $8 Billion 20 year Inflation indexed securities. This should go over well since the yield is tied to inflation. A pretty safe bet for investors. this is the first of 78billion in auctions this week.
- Tuesday January 27: Fed Meeting begins. No news expected on the first day.
- Tuesday: January: Consumer Confidence; Expected 39.0 vs 38 last month. Just a place keeper on the calendar. As always, it is what the consumer is doing more than what they are saying that the markets care about.
- Tuesday: $40 Billion auction of 2 year notes. This is said to be a record breaker. Not expected to have any influence on rates as reasonable bids are expected.
- Wednesday January 28: Fed Meeting concludes at 1:15pm; expected NO CHANGE in monetary policy. But look for the market to look closely at the Feds statement. As always it is more what the Fed says than what they do!
- Thursday Jan 29: Initial Jobless claims for prev week; expected -6000. The anticipated number is not likely to move the market either way
- Thursday: December Durable Goods; -2.0%. December reports have all been negative, so a decrease in this number is to be expected. Manafacturing numbers were the worst since the early 80's. Since it is priced in, it would take a big surprise here to move the markets.
- Thursday: December New Home sales; Expected -1.7%. Not likely to move rates. But I may be cautious here since the existing homes number was stronger than expected. Analysts think the bottom in the housing market is still a few months away.
- Thursday: $30 Billion of 5 year notes being auctioned; We need to hope this auction goes well, if it doesn't it will cause a drag on mortgage rates.
- Friday January 30: First estimate of fourth quarter GDP; -5.4%. The economy did POORLY to say the least in the last quarter, that is not any surprise. Traders have already priced in an ugly number so there will not be much of a move in the markets based on this forecast.
The "Biggie of The Week" is probably a combo of the Fed meeting along with the results of the auctions. It is anticipated that the Fed's post meeting statement will hint at the Fed will be playing in the capital markets to buy Treasury bills. If this is the case, it is good news for interest rates. The problem is the excess supply and the fact that we will continue to see auctions to support government spending. Participation in the auctions is a key to what may happen in the credit markets. Poorly bid auctions will not be good news for interest rates.
Another thing that has come to light: It appears that the Treasury and the Fed may not be buying Mortgages to the point that we had hoped for. It appears that Obama's administration may funnel money differently. While the Treasury had been in the market keeping rates steady in a crazy up down environment, they will not be there as much as they had. The Treasury will still jump in as needed, just not to the extent that it would have prior to January 20th.
It has been such a bumpy interest rate road that I would say LOCK THE DARN LOAN IN! we are so close to historically low levels for rates that it is just the safe gamble to take right now. We are a touch higher than the all time lows we saw 2 weeks ago, but I don't see how any one could ever complain about getting an interest rate in the low 5's!
Have a great week!
Rob
(732)223-1630 x102
Real Estate Mortgage Network
NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey
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