Market Outlook
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Price Trend: Negative
Price Volatility: High
Recommendation: Floating
_________________________________________________________________
Current Conditions: Today's Economic Data (all times PDT)
FNMA 4.5 101-03 (-4) Jobless Claims 5:30 GNMA 4.5 101-03 (-5) Durable Goods Orders 5:30
10yr Yield 2.687% New Home Sales 10:00
_________________________________________________________________
Commentary:
Yesterday's Fed announcement was not exactly what the market was looking for. Although the statement mentioned the Fed's continued purchases of MBS and Treasuries, it was rather vague about the extent of their intentions.
This morning's MBS pricing is being most heavily influenced by selling from originators (mortgage bankers) which is not being met with adequate demand. All of the data released this morning showed continued weakness in the economy and is probably providing a little price support.
Tomorrow will see the release of 2008 Q4 GDP. It is expected to be very bad. It would seem that there is little chance of a rally if the number is worse than expected (-5.5%). There is some risk of further selling if it comes in better, but that isn't likely.
This Week's Calendar:
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com |
Consensus |
Prior |
Jan 26 |
10:00 a.m. |
Existing Home Sales |
Dec |
4.74M |
4.40M |
4.40M |
4.49M |
Jan 26 |
10:00 a.m. |
Dec |
.03% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
|
Jan 27 |
09:00 a.m. |
Jan |
37.7 |
39.0 |
38.0 |
38.0 |
|
Jan 27 |
09:00 a.m. |
S&P/CaseShiller Composite |
Nov |
-18.18 |
NA |
NA |
-18.04% |
Jan 28 |
10:30 a.m. |
Crude Inventories |
01/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
6.1 mln |
Jan 28 |
02:15 p.m. |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Jan. 28 |
|
NA |
NA |
0-0.25 |
Jan 29 |
08:30 a.m. |
Dec |
-2.6% |
-2.2% |
-1.8% |
-1.5% |
|
Jan 29 |
08:30 a.m. |
01/24 |
588K |
580K |
575K |
585K |
|
Jan 29 |
10:00 a.m. |
Dec |
331K |
400K |
400K |
407K |
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 a.m. |
Q4 |
|
0.5% |
0.6% |
3.9% |
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 a.m. |
Q4 |
|
-5.5% |
-5.4% |
-0.5% |
|
Jan 30 |
09:45 a.m. |
Jan |
|
33.5 |
34.0 |
34.1 |
|
Jan 30 |
09:55 a.m. |
Jan |
|
62.0 |
61.9 |
61.9 |
|
Jan 30 |
10:00 a.m. |
Q4 |
|
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
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